Results of previous day
On Thursday, the Russian stock market under the heavy burden of external negative failed miserably with the task of confirming the growing trend.
The RTS index fell by 2.93% to 1463.01 points and the MICEX index - by 2.46% to 1395.87 points. Trading volume amounted to an average recent value.
While the U.S. stock market in recent days for a long time did not dare to form at least a technical bounce up and his Russian counterpart had the courage to return to the upward trend for that on Thursday he had to reap the fruits of their folly. Like a scorcher, the Russian stock market was at high speed in a turn and lost control, left the road.
Published on the eve of the evening below forecasts business activity index in service in the U.S., which forced players to improve hedging and partly to take profits, did not inspire considerable fear that gives hope for a gradual return to a trajectory of growth. But by the beginning of trading on Friday in this scenario included substantial adjustments.
appeared on the tapes of news agencies information that a budget deficit of Spain may exceed its earlier forecast was again the spiral of fear of debt servicing of PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), eclipsing with an effect of the different data business activity in the industrial sphere. Accelerate this trend during the day the application agency Standard Poor”s that the quality of the sovereign debt of Spain is under pressure, hinting that might put their risk lowering its rating. Added fuel to the fire and the head of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn, noting that the exit from the crisis of Spain will be given a high price. Reducing Portugal planned volume for placement of their bills added nervousness players, forcing them guessing: what was so decided and whether this country from other sources to patch all of their holes in the budget.
On the background of these developments on world markets quickly been forgotten b1000y the European Commission the adoption of the budget plan for Greece, which contributed to the return of traction to risk aversion. Credit Default Swaps in Greece and other PIGS began to grow, as well as the return on their sovereign bonds, which has put pressure on the single European currency. Indirect effects due to the appreciation of the dollar has to be felt in commodity markets, which threatened to level all of their recent achievements. Thus, the participants on the Russian stock market loomed rather unpleasant prospects. However, most market participants do not lose hope, that after the extension of the negative correction in the morning, the Russian stock market will be able to find strength during the day to push the line of the new short-term trend up in 1423 and the level of the item, the passage above which a few days ago marked the final loss initiative bears.
This scenario was most likely before the statistics from the U.S.. Despite the fact that the stock markets of the PIGS paced roller sales spreading to other European markets, the domestic stock market in the first half of the day behaved itself quite well done, balancing on the level in 1423 points, jumping, however, a trend, but staying with him side by side, demonstrating a willingness to be in it again. At this point, summed up the meeting of the ECB and the Bank of England, where interest rates were left unchanged, that given the fact that it is fully consistent with expectations, all left untouched. The Bank of England did not disturb investsoobschestvo not change the size of the program became quantitative easing in the amount of 200 billion British pounds sterling, it completely to his exhausting meeting. Earlier came the weak data on promzakazam in Germany (-2.3% m /m, against forecasts of 0.2% m /m), which had no significant effect.
Before leaving the block of statistics from the U.S. most of the gamblers began betting on its favorable character, that, if implemented would definitely remove the question of confirmation of a growing trend. However, the published data removed the uncertainty of the vector of the market in the near future is not in favor of the bulls. Factor productivity was (6.2% k /k) worse than forecast (6.5%). This is particularly unpleasant aspect was the reduction in labor costs (-4.4% /K) and real wages (-1.9% /K), which led to think again about the threat of deflation and the viability of consumer demand, and thus the health of the American economy after going full swing now, the cycle of recovery of goods in warehouses and all sorts gosstimulov. The acuteness of these thoughts gave an increase in applications for unemployment benefits up to 480 thousand, while the experts would entail a reduction to 455 thousand, which is again reminiscent of a weak labor market and help lower the slats on the forthcoming publication on nonfarm payrolls.
With the release of these data and the pressure on foreign stock markets on the European single currency has intensified. SANDRA FUHRINGER began to decline and quotations on commodity markets, including in the energy market, which has left no other choice the Russian stock market as well as downstairs. With that said and disappointment that the growing trend was broken, giving the market dynamics of almost panic-stricken character. With the release of data on promzakazam in the U.S. (1%) higher than forecast (0.5%) remained in the shares market participants were able to get a breather, allowing end your day on the MICEX index above 1,395 points, leaving hope for a bounce from current levels on Friday.
look at today”s market
completion of a working week on the Russian stock market can be given the label “Sales. Continued. The negative statistics from the United States on applications for unemployment benefits, as well as1000labor costs, coupled with a large spread of “contagion” sorry state of state finances in the PIGS in world financial and commodity markets flattened top technical rebound on the U.S. stock market (SP - 3.1%). Asian stock markets on Friday morning in solidarity with their counterparts around the world, playing at least appeared in the last day of the negative: Nikkei 225 -2.89%, Hang Seng -2.91%, Shanghai composite -2.2%. At the international currency market the euro has fallen to the level of 1.37, where the dynamics is stabilized. In turn, prices for WTI crude on the class have found support at $ 73/barr., A 2 $ below under the closure of the Russian stock market on Thursday.
nature of the last session on Wall Street c update of recent lows leads to expect a new wave of sales in the future with greater force, with negative impact on the state of stock markets in the world, including Russia. Meanwhile, futures for U.S. indices are in positive territory (SP 500 0.24%), demonstrating a willingness to form after such a massive sales technical bounce up from the psychological level of 10 000 points on an index DJIA. However, the Russian stock market these circumstances are unlikely to have significant support in early trading. The reason for this gap will be down at least 1%, which results in the opening below the zone of support in the 1390-1395 points, against a background of psychological sales and triggered stop-loss is likely to eventually lead to the fact that the MICEX index will feel the support of only 1365 points, where there is a wish to go up. Driver movement in the direction of the abandoned a day earlier levels may be a publication of data on the U.S. labor market in the 16-30, if they differ significantly for the better compared to the eve of the deteriorating outlook. If market participants are also disappointed, it is possible that the closure will again be “in the floor.” Given the deteriorating situation in the last day of global financial and commodity markets, as well as breaking up the short-term uptrend in the MICEX index may go below 1,365 points, after which the guide will be the mark of 1300 points.
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