FOREX and Stock Market Analysis

External factors are not conducive to shopping

Unfortunately for the bull, the external factors existing before today”s opening, will not contribute to purchases. The negative dynamics on the American markets, since our closing, and the decline in oil prices will lead to the opening of Russian markets in negative territory. Thus, from a technical point of view, remains an important level of 1,390 points. If the “bulls” will be able to hold him back, it will retain hopes of a possible reversal of the market and attempt to start a new wave of upward movement. In the case if the “bears” succeed to push this level, it is likely that in the short term decline will continue, with immediate support to the market can serve as a level of 1315 points. Consolidation of the market above this level was still room for growth in Russia”s market.

In Friday trading on Russia”s market opened lower quotations on the background of negative dynamics of foreign markets. Attempt to restore undertaken “bulls”, after reaching the MICEX index level 1390 points was not successful, resulting in a market seen macroeconomic statistics on the morning lows. Left data supported the “bulls” and allowed them to hold the end of the session in the growth and withdraw most of its market into positive territory. As leaders of growth were the paper Gazprom and InterRAO, adding more than 2%. On the negative territory closed Surgutneftegaz (-1.5%) and Polyus Gold (-0.5%). As a result of trading the MICEX index added 0.9%, ending the day at 1,419.25 points.

traded on the American sites have opened growth of the major indexes, which contributed to macroeconomic statistics. After the first hour of trading, during which the main indexes added about 1%, the markets faced a wave of sales. As a result, by the middle of the day indices returned to levels close Thursday, and at the end of the session had gone to the negative territory. As a result of the auctions the index Dow Jones and S P500 lost 0,53% and 0,98% respectively, the NASDAQ index fell 1.45%. At the morning session, futures on S P500 index shows lateral movement at the levels close to 9.50 on Friday and is trading at 1073 points.

energy market after our closing demonstrated lower quotations. Futures Brent crude by the end of trading reached a level of 71 dollars, then there has been recovery, will partially compensate for the loss. At the morning session, the contract is consolidated at the levels of previous day”s close of 9.50 and is trading at 71.3 dollars per barrel.

If we talk about the upcoming week, apart from macroeconomic statistics, with particular attention to investors will be drawn to the index of personal consumption, business activity index in the manufacturing industry and services, and data on the number of new jobs and unemployment, to attract the attention of the players view Volcker”s plan in Congress to restrict the activities of banks, which will take place on Tuesday. It is likely that on Friday U.S. markets weighed just waiting for this event, calling the sale of assets against the backdrop of the positive macroeconomic data. Also, markets will continue to monitor closely the actions of the Chinese Central Bank and the situation around Greece. An additional factor is the macroeconomic statistics, published last week in the U.S., which makes the players to revise their expectations about the time change in monetary policy by the Fed. And there will be an important factor in data from the labor market going into Friday. In this regard, the positive macroeconomic statistics may have a negative impact on the dynamics of world share platforms.

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Last Friday, the euro /dollar continued its decline in the U.S. session, and reached 1.3860 marks. Couple pound /dollar after rising to 1.6178 marks dropped to 1.5982, which is 196 points below the daily maximum. Pair dollar /yen was established near the mark of 90.23. Cross the euro /yen was trading at the end of the session near the 125.12 level.

The experts noted that the pressure on the euro against the dollar has reduced investors” willingness to take risks and fall of stock indices. Pressure on the euro exchange rate continues to concern investors about how to solve the problem of large fiscal deficit in Greece.
In turn, support the dollar provided a positive economic data released in the U.S.. On market talk that U.S. interest rates may be increased earlier than in the euro area ..

Last Friday, the Dow Jones New York Stock Exchange fell 53.13 points (-0.52%). The Nasdaq fell 31.65 points (-1.45%). SP 500 index dropped to 10.66 points (-0.98%).

Last Friday, the index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX rose 68.46 points (1.24%). The London FTSE 100 index rose 42.78 points (0.83%). Bloomberg European 500 Index rose 1.72 points (1.00%).

Preliminary GDP value in the U.S. for the fourth quarter of 2009 at an annual rate was 5.7% (forecast was 4.5%, the previous value of 2.2%). Factor out much better than forecast and reached its highest level since 2003.

Chicago PMI in the U.S. for January 2010 amounted to 61.5 (forecast 57.0, the previous value of 58.7). This figure is of great importance to the publication of the index of business activity at the national level, which is scheduled for Monday.

The final value of Michigan sentiment index in the U.S. for January 2010 amounted to 74.4 (73.0 forecast, the previous value of 72.8). This index also came out better than expected and reached a maximum level for the past two years.

Last Friday the price of WTI crude oil during the bidding in New York fell to 1.20 dollar to the level of 72.44 dollars per barrel. read more…

After the presidential election on 9 February, will begin negotiations to form a new coalition in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. This Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych said on television channel “1 1″, the press service of Yanukovych.

He also said he would not tolerate disruption of or tampering with the presidential election. “We have never and will not allow anyone to falsify or disrupt the elections. That will not happen. And it must remember everyone”, - he said.

Earlier BYuT announced that one of the requirements in consultation with the Regions Party candidates in the presidential first round of elections is a discussion of early parliamentary elections.

As previously reported, the leader of PR Yanukovych promised to dissolve the parliament if it fails to be re-formatted the coalition. “I think there are two ways: either to be re-formatted the coalition, or in May, will be early elections”, - Viktor Yanukovych said.

At the same time, Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is confident that after the presidential elections early parliamentary elections in Ukraine will not.

In turn, the deputy chairman of the Central Electoral Commission Andriy Magera said that after the President”s office, he has an entire volume of the powers conferred by the Constitution of Ukraine, including those regarding the early termination of powers of Parliament. read more…

Chinese authorities intend to prohibit the creation of new car companies. According to Reuters, is now in the Middle Kingdom already has more than 100 auto manufacturers, which produce different models.

And most of these car manufacturers are small companies that do not have a chance for serious development. That is why the Chinese authorities will compel automakers to join - if someone wants to do the release machinery, it would have to buy one of the already existing companies and invest in its development.

the companies will be allowed to associate with each other. As a result, as suggested in the leadership of China, will create large automobile holdings, which can compete with the world”s leading auto company.
 

In 2009, China became the world”s largest car market. According to the China Automobile Association, in 2009 in the Celestial Empire was sold 13.5 million vehicles (including trucks and buses), up 44% more than in 2008. Thus 87% of total sales accounted for Chinese automakers. read more…

During the last session of the capital”s New Year”s deputies approved the new rules for outdoor advertising, which not only cutting back the agency”s rights, but also make maintenance more expensive boards 1,5-2 times: just have to pay extra for every scratch on the design. Employers said they would challenge the document in court.

tattered billboards would cost more

The Kiev outdoor market is maturing scandal. Last week, the Agency was able to get copies of two orders of Kyiv mayor Leonid Chernovetsky: “On approval of the order of placement of external advertising in Kiev” (№ 1423 from 23.12.09) and “establishing a commission on advertising” (№ 1446 from 24.12.09). New rules for placement of outdoor advertising has managed to obtain the approval of MPs on the last New Year”s session at the end of December and, in fact, entered into force, although none of the documents at the official site KSCA could not be found.
Orders

contain a number of revolutionary innovations to the market. New rules for placement of outdoor advertising, in particular, prescribe that the solution to the boards are not issued for five years, as required by the national model regulations and up to five years. That is, in fact take place at the entrepreneur may be a year. Introduce and further the negotiation structure.

For example, in addition to managing the architecture and the traffic police, to approve authorization documentation is needed now and in the management for the improvement of the city administration. U officials appeared and additional reasons for the dismantling of structures. The new rules stipulate that the basis for the demolition of the shield is the delay of payments for two months. But the most careful authors of the document was released financial matters. In addition to zoning, which, depending on the location of the construction provides 1,5-3 factor to the base rate, officials have coined a whole list of allowances (the so-called “additional correction coefficients”).

Thus, in the slovenly appearance of the planes (damage shield, the presence on it of paper ads, graffiti, litter near the carrier, etc.) to the owner have to pay from half to two rates (up to 2800 UAH. per month). In the same in the City Hall assessed the use of shields, “made use of outdated technologies and of the outdated materials, as well as the empty plane. Payment for the lease of city land for the communal structures will now depend on how much Kiev theoretically be able to see the advertising message: a 10-20 thousand potential customers have to pay a factor of 1.2, for 20-40 thousand - with coefficient 1 , 5, 40-60 thousand - with a coefficient of 1.75, over 60 thousand - with a coefficient of 2.

According to the Executive Director of the Association of foreign advertising Artem Bidenko, now pay the double tariff will be for 70% of Kiev”s billboards, as well as in areas with a low cross them obviously no one puts.

fairness it should be noted that for ideal Advertisers officials have provided and discounts. read more…

deficit of the current and financial account balance of payments in Ukraine in 2010 will amount to 0,5 billion each.

told in the commentary UNIAN Economist Astrum Investment Management Alexei Blinov.

According to him, a large current account deficit in December 2009 was associated significantly with peak volumes of gas imports. This month, Ukraine has purchased 4.3 billion cubic meters worth 893 million dollars, recalled economist.

, however, believes Blinov, imports of gas is not the only explanation for such a wide gap in foreign trade up to December 2009. Grew up away and other imports, and particularly expressive was a leap of imports of engineering products at 32,7%, noted economist. In his view, this points to the fact that Ukraine is already a certain recovery of investment processes and confirms the expectations of investment growth of 8% in real terms in 2010

At the same time, said the economist, in December there were no significant payments on foreign debts, which allowed to go in the financial account surplus. Activities in the field of foreign direct investment in December was weak, reaching only 120 million dollars, which brought the figure up in 2009 to 4,5 billion dollars, said Blinov. He added that the outflow of foreign currency in cash is substantial: in December it amounted to 1.1 billion dollars, and the cumulative cash outflows in foreign currency in 2009 was $ 9.6 billion.

As UNIAN reported earlier, according to the National Bank”s balance of payments deficit of Ukraine in 2009, according to preliminary data, amounted to 13.727 billion dollars, that in 4,3 times more than in 2008 (3,209 billion dollars) .

Following the 2009 current account deficit amounted to 1.94 billion dollars, compared with a deficit of 12,763 billion dollars in 2008. “In 2009, the decline in external demand and world prices resulting from global crisis resulted in a significant decrease in revenues from exports of goods and services - by 36,7%. read more…

Government of Japan has expressed concern over a series of problems found on vehicles Toyota. “The scope of reviews of products are enormous. The situation is extremely serious,” - declared Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan Masayuki Naosima at a meeting with journalists.

According

Naosimy, this series of problems demonstrates the potential dangers posed by globalization of the economy.

Agency DAPD recalls that Toyota has recalled 7.6 million in the workshops of automobiles in the United States and more than 75 thousand - in China. A similar step, it will have to resort in Europe, where the incidence of problems is not yet clear. In the history of the company such a measure has never been covered so many machines. One reason - defective floor mat on the driver”s seat. Shifting, a rug can disrupt the ability of the car to pick up speed and cause accidents. Toyota Motor advised owners of vehicles that have not undergone maintenance, simply remove the mat. read more…

Banks agreed to buy Government Bonds with a six-month return of 21% over $ 2 billion UAH. This decision was taken during an expanded meeting of the Board of the NBU, which was attended by the prime minister and representatives of virtually all major banks with the Ukrainian and foreign capital (except for Privat), sources told The Mirror of the Week “.

As clarified “ZN” one of the participants, Yuliya Tymoshenko suggested the bankers to buy Government Bonds in the amount of 4,6 billion UAH.

According to the source, the NBU adopted Resolution of the Board, which was obligated to buy Government Bonds from the banks for five days prior to maturity.

“It will then be dealt with financial problems between the Cabinet and National Bank of Ukraine, Vladimir Stelmach did not say” - told the interlocutor “ZN”.

recall that in February, the government must pay back issues of state bonds worth about 1,5 billion UAH. More about 2,5 billion UAH. be paid to holders of Government Bonds in April. Nevertheless, in the first half of the Cabinet of Ministers must repay government debt of more than 8 billion UAH. In the second half, given the banks bought bonds on 2,1 billion UAH., The government will need to pay the holders of government securities is about 5,5 billion UAH.

According to the former deputy chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Serhiy Yaremenko, the National Bank in this operation is the guarantor of government payments.

“I think the promise to buy Government Bonds for five days prior to their maturity and the government have the option of such a guarantee”, - considers Yaremenko.

In his view, such cooperation between the NBU and the Cabinet could mean that in the event of his presidency Tymoshenko Stelmach has a chance to retain the post of head of the National Bank. read more…

Ukrainian car market in 2009 showed a third result of falling car sales in Europe. Such data are contained in the monthly review of Russia”s car market, prepared by the research agency “Avtostat.”

In particular, according to analysts, the Ukrainian car market within the next year, “dipped” to 71,4%. Poor dynamics among European countries was observed only in Latvia (-80.5%) and Iceland (-77.6%).

At the fourth position

Lithuania (-67.4%) and closes the “top five” outsiders Estonia, where the decline of the market amounted to 66,2%. Russia in this “antireytinge” took ninth place with a rate 49.7% with a minus. More than Russia, “sunk” the car market in Ireland (-62.1%), Romania (-59.4%) and Hungary (-50.4%).

However, the leader in sales growth up to 2009 was Germany, where the incentive program to update the fleet car sales rose by 23,2%. read more…

Presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych said that if elected, is ready to begin negotiations with Russia and the EU about the possibility of a gas consortium “to improve the reliability guarantee transit volume of Russia”s natural gas to Europe” - the press service of the Party of Regions, whose leader is Yanukovich.

“My view is that since 2004 has not changed: I was a supporter of a gas consortium: the supplier - Russia, the consumer - Europe and the transit country - Ukraine … I have not changed their intentions,” - he said.

According to Yanukovych, the reason for the start of construction of gas pipelines bypassing Russia Ukraine has “no confidence” in relations between countries. Only in 2009, Ukraine has lost 20 billion cubic meters of transit, “said the leader of the PR.

In addition, the candidate for senior posts of the country said that after the election victory would make “a substantial increase in the growth of trade turnover between Ukraine and Russia, which, according to him, declined significantly in recent years. read more…