FOREX and Stock Market Analysis

Despite the abnormally low temperatures in January as in Ukraine and in Europe, the Ukrainian gas transport system worked flawlessly. With regard to payment of gas, “Naftogaz Ukraine” has paid Gazprom for the transmission in January of this year, natural gas, 780.224 million

to an UNIAN correspondent, told a briefing in the Cabinet of Ministers first deputy chairman of Naftogaz Ukraine “Ihor Didenko.

According to him, in some d1000ays of January, daily consumption of gas in Ukraine reached 370 million cubic meters. m, and transit supply - 350 million cubic meters. m per day.

“We showed once again that our transportation system works flawlessly,” - he stressed.

Didenko also noted that the discipline of calculations within the country remains poor. “Only with the support of the Cabinet of Ministers” Naftogaz Ukraine “was able to pay for the transmission of Russian gas in January,” - he said. read more…

Public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine as of 31 December 2009 amounted to 301 billion 428 million UAH 408.82, or 37 billion 749 million 331.11 thousand dollars

In particular, public and publicly guaranteed external debt - 196 000 000 000 295 0010000 000 489.41 thousand USD (65.12% of the total public and publicly guaranteed debt) and domestic debt - 105 000 000 000 132 000 000 919.41 thousand UAH (34.88%). Reported the press service of the Ministry of Finance.

state debt of Ukraine is 211 billion 622 million UAH 388.29 (70.21%), or 26 billion 502 million 490.73 thousand dollars

note Article 11 of the Law of Ukraine “On State Budget of Ukraine for 2009″ is set to limit the public debt of Ukraine in the amount of 193 billion 076 million 747.3 thousand UAH. The excess of the actual amount of public debt over the limit is 18 billion 545 million 641.0 thousand UAH and is called as the implementation of government borrowing and increases in actual foreign exchange rates, compared with projections that were used in planning the state budget.

State external debt amounted to 120 billion 552 million UAH 311.52 (39.99%), or 15 billion 097 million 346.48 thousand dollars. State domestic debt amounted to 91 billion 070 million UAH 076.77 (30.21%), or 11 billion 405 million 144.25 thousand dollars

guaranteed debt of Ukraine amounted to 89 billion 806 million UAH 020.53 (29.79%), or 11 billion 246 million 840.38 thousand dollars, including: guaranteed external debt - 75 billion 743 million 177 89 thousand UAH (25,13%), or 9 billion 485 million 682.89 thousand dollars; guaranteed internal debt - 14 billion 062 million UAH 842.64 (4.67%), or 1 billion 761 million 157 49 thousand dollars

During 2009, total public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine has increased by UAH equivalent to 112 billion 018 million UAH 014.00 (59.14%). It went through the issuance of bonds of internal state loan to increase the authorized capital stock and Naftogaz Ukraine “and to replenish the Stabilization Fund, for a second tranche of the loan that the International Monetary Fund, the receipt of the first World Bank loan program to rehabilitate the financial sector and growth in foreign exchange rates to UAH. read more…

According to experts, high yield Government Bonds will encourage foreign funds to strengthen its position in the Ukrainian debt, which eventually may lead to unnecessary rate fluctuations after the election.

Representatives of foreign banks surveyed by “i” on the results vtornichnogo auction on placement of three-year Government Bonds in the amount of 1,12 bln., reported that most of the securities bought nonresidents.
“The main buyers were” Citibank (Ukraine), ING Bank (Ukraine) “and” Calyon “- says one of the financiers. According to him, three-year paper with a rate of return at 26% per annum - quite an attractive asset for residents, in which foreign markets have no other profitable alternatives to invest. The banker expects the next auction, in which the Ministry of Finance will publish shorter papers will enjoy even more popular with foreigners. “Now the yield curve on state bonds said that investors do not expect Default country - says the expert .- Otherwise, the yield on short bonds would be higher than the long.

According to financial analyst Astrum Investment Management Sergey Fursa, the nearest large repayments in March 2010 will be a gradual decline in yield of primary and secondary market on a background of increased speculative capital. “The most important factors driving the demand for paper, are the lack of expectations for the further devaluation of the hryvnia and high returns on these securities relative to the cost of debt capital availablef99to non-residents”, - said the expert. read more…

As expected, the Russian auctions have opened decrease stock indicators, helped by a negative closing American markets and the re-emergence of problems in the debt market in Europe. Additional pressure on the quotations of Russian securities has weakened the ruble against the basket of currencies and the reduction of quotations of oil under the influence of the strengthening dollar on world currency markets. The average Russian stock indicators in the second half of the day have already lost 3-4%. Most securities traded in the negative zone. It is difficult to name any of the economic sectors looked worse than the rest - about all were equal. Approximately 3% of lost stock value in the banking, oil and gas and metallurgical sectors. Slightly better market the securities of telecommunications companies, in particular, “Rostelecom”, traded in a little black.

However, market participants still remained the hope of improving the situation on the market and it has been linked with the forthcoming publication of macroeconomic statistics from the U.S., describing the situation of unemployment. It is expected as a minimum, the increase in jobs. If market expectations coincide with the data, it can be expected to rebound from the lows on Friday afternoon and then continue to grow. Otherwise, stock indexes are at risk to go even lower.

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the beginning of next week, markets will calm down

Thursday-Friday this week the stock, currency and commodity markets have lost stability. Red screen of exchange rates around the world suggests that we see the mass withdrawal of money from risky assets. Not flow from one sector to another, not from one region, namely access to the cache.

The formal reason as fear of growing national debt of a number of peripheral countries in the eurozone has caused a wave of downsizing operations speculative strategy sarry trade dollar and the yen. Foreign Exchange moved down to 5-6% of the price of raw materials. At this point, everyone wants to just sell. Given the fact that indicators of stock and commodity markets in isolation from the real sector were at a peak in recent months, the movement of quotations down was swift and powerful. Indeed, when the Spanish and Portuguese stock index lost two days of 6-8% - this is not a correction, it is called panic. And she, as a rule, one day does not end there. It is commendable that the Russian Central Bank still firmly holds the ruble to the dollar is not above a mark 30.50. But if the price of Brent crude still strikes the level of $ 71/barr. I think the new severe weakening of the ruble, we can not avoid.

to start bidding in 1,5% gepom down to dinner the Russian stock market indicators are losing by 3-4%. On the MICEX index closest range of support is near 1340-1350 points. Approximately at the current levels of our market shares will be traded in the next few hours. The reason for the rebound up yet, however, and open short positions after a 3% decline on the MICEX quotation is already difficult. Players will be waiting for statistics on the labor market from the USA (16-30 Moscow time). If it is not too scared by the market, then perhaps we will see in the evening closing of short positions and a higher level of correction up.

In general we can say that the foreign exchange and stock markets are now in the zone of high turbulence. I think that in the beginning of next week, nervous situation in the markets try to cool the comments of heads of financial departments of the United States and Europe. Nevertheless, with the purchase of shares until the rush is not worth it.

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Yesterday the markets clearly panicked. Recurrence of the January sales brought down the U.S. stock indices.

One of the discussed cause of the fall - the growth of unemployment in the U.S. - we do not seem convincing. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the week from 472 to 480 thousand it”s not such a big difference, to bring down stock prices by about 3%. The range of statistical deviation of the indicator in the annual downtrend is now 400/487 Thousands As we see, the evidence is quite fit into this range and are not critical: for the past three weeks, this figure actually does not change and remains in the range 472-480 th

The main source of threat - the growing wave of fiscal problems in the EU countries and including the USA. read more…

Stock market CIF
The labor market in the United States continues to increase the army of the unemployed, together with indicators of corporate profits, as well as concerns over the fact that Spain and Portugal may befall the same fate as that of Greece, were the main catalysts for the fall of the broad market index SP 500. Shares of the giants of the American economy - Bank of America Corp. and Alcoa Inc. lost more than 4% of becoming the leaders of the decline among the 30 companies comprising the index DJIA. The results of such companies as MasterCard Inc., Kellogg Co. and Monster Worldwide Inc. lost up to 10% of its market value. Exxon Mobil Corp. lost almost 3% of market value at the background of falling oil by more than 5%.

Russian stock market
domestic stock market likely will have to test the lower boundary of the figure Rising wedge. The likelihood of further breakdown of the lower boundary can lead to that, the MICEX index is able to go abroad after graduating from the figure, thus, the formation and starting further developed in order to achieve the level of the beginning of the formation of the figures in the 1180 1200p. MICEX index. It is worth noting that in this case, the potential reduction of the market is in the range 11-12%. The positions of the previous support in the area of 1360p. can also be pierced during the current session, which in turn can increase the pressure of sales in the market.

European stock market

European stock markets on Thursday showed the maximum decline in 10 weeks because of concerns about the problems in the peripheral countries and the euro area after the sudden growth in applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Pan-European index of “blue” chips FTSEurofirst 300 fell to 2.27 per cent to 992.96 item that was the biggest daily decline in 10 weeks. Shares of Spanish Banco Santander, the eurozone”s largest bank, became cheaper by 9.4 per cent, despite the fact that the company reported a good annual profit. Among the other banks have suffered losses, BBVA, Barclays, Credit Suisse, HSBC and Lloyds Banking.1000Their shares fell by 4-7,6 percent.

Asian stock market

The reasons that caused the decline in U.S. markets, have similar catalysts and for the Asian region. Shares Nissan Motor Co. - Sold 35% of its products in North America has lost 3.9% of market value, after strengthening the yen against the dollar, which negatively affects the export earnings. Rio Tinto Group - the third-largest mining company in the world has lost 5% on the basis of trading in Sydney. Westpac Banking Corp. - Amid fears about the budget deficit of Greece, Portugal and Spain, could have a negative impact on Asian banks.

Dynamics of the MICEX Index (daily chart)

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Possible scenarios of the behavior of the futures on the RTS index in the near future:

targets for futures on the RTS index in its growth:
1) The black horizontal line - 156 300 points in futures on the RTS index.
a. 1 - 3 days.

targets for futures on the RTS at its fall:
2) The blue horizontal line - 127,850 units on futures on the RTS index.
time to reach this goal:
a. 5-10 working days.
3) red horizontal line - 118 500 points for the futures on the RTS index.
time to reach this goal:
a. 25 trading days.

Recommendations for today:
1) sell at 156 300 points. Stop-loss set at mark 156 800 points.

Evening session on FORTS February 4, 2010:
Following the evening session of the futures on the RTS index fell by more than 3000 points. Volume slightly above average. This evening market volatility have not seen. Euro /dollar reached 1.3691 target, if it breached this goal, the next fabulous 1.2231. Savings rushed to his support at 82 rubles. Now awaiting the commencement of the consolidation of the achieved levels on all instruments.

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Saratov FAS Russia attracted Sberbank of Russia “to administrative proceedings under Article 14.31 of the Administrative Code, for abuse of dominant position in the 1.8 million rubles. Earlier FAS recognized “Sberbank” violated Part 1 Article 10 of the Federal Law “On Protection of Competition.”

Since September 2008, Saratov branch of Sberbank has introduced tariff for the preparation of the payment document when receiving cash payments from the population at a rate of 10 rubles. In case of refusal to pay the quoted rate in making payments without opening a bank account, clients are encouraged to make payments through ATMs or by debiting the funds from the account on deposit without paying commission to the bank for processing the payment order.

However, the implementation of the credit organization of the transfer of funds without a bank account to an individual should be given the opportunity to fill the payment instrument itself. read more…

The meltdown in global stock markets intensified amid rising investor concern with the problems of sovereign debt of European countries, as well as the weak statistics for week to apply for unemployment benefit in the U.S.. Capital leaves the risky assets, as evidenced by a record outflow of funds from hedzhfondov. After yesterday”s fall to 2,5% today, the MICEX index rolled away to the local minima of this year at the § 1370, where he found strong support. The reason for the recovery of the stock indices could be statistics on the U.S. labor market, which, according to analysts, must show employment growth in the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, after a short respite, a decline of stock markets could resume, the reason why will be forthcoming deployment of U.S. Treasury securities next week, which with the growing uncertainty in the markets may divert a large part of speculative capital, thereby depriving the capital markets support.

meltdown in stock markets of Europe, caused by the overestimation of risk in the sovereign debt of Greece, followed by Portugal and Spain, the predetermined negative opening of trading in the U.S.. “European theme, highlighted the number of events: it”s hard pressure from the European Commission against Greece, and weak demand in the Portuguese Treasury bonds during the last auction, and the expansion of the forecast budget deficit of Spain in the coming years. Furthermore, in an accompanying statement, the ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet, the market saw no confidence in economic recovery: the head of the ECB noted considerable uncertainty about the future economy of the euro area.

reduction in the United States intensified after the release of statistics on the primary treatment for unemployment benefits, which last week rose unexpectedly in 8000 at the forecast decline in the 10000, which spoiled the mood of investors on the eve of today”s official statistics on the labor market in the U.S. in January.

With such serious problems at the country level, the market ignored a good reporting Cisco, as well as making progress in the dynamics of sales of U.S. retailers. As a result, the Dow fell yesterday at 2.61% to 10,002.18 forth, SP - on 3,11% to 1,063.11 §

This morning decline in the stock markets in Asia continued. MSCI index fell by 2,5%, which was the most serious decline over the past 10 weeks. The collapse in commodity markets, reinforced by the strengthening of the dollar, has led to increased sales in the shares of commodity companies. Leading companies in steel sector, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton lost 4.7% and 3.5%, respectively. In Japan, against the background of strengthening the yen against the dollar seriously affected shares of exporters - they have fallen by more than 3%.

Serious sales continued in the commodity asset: oil fell by 5% to $ 73.14 a barrel, also suffered a serious decline and quotes the main industrial metals. For the Russian market, sitting on “the oil needle”, a collapse in the market of raw material cost at today”s opening of 1,7% of capitalization. Some support the market may find at 1360-1370 n. MICEX index. We do not exclude that in the event of bad statistics on the labor market in SSCHA, investors revise their economic expectations that he would return for a little while the demand for raw materials and support the actions of domestic mining companies.

From corporate news should provide a message that the IDC Holding potential to attract foreign investors, whose domestic network “tempt” the tf80ransition to RAB. Of course, this goal is long-term and its implementation will be possible only after the consolidation of the holding, however, it should help to maintain investor interest in securities of the holding power grid.

In a segment of communication is worth paying attention to the announcement of preliminary results reporting Svyazinvest in 2009, according to which profits MRK grew by 40%, which allows you to count on good dividends.

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