Forex Market. 18/01/2010

 

According to information received by the market in the last trading day last week, the U.S. CPI index in monthly terms has increased in December 2009 to 0,1% against the average forecast in this case is equal to 0,2% and growth is also at 0 , 2% (m /m) in November last year. At the same time, the annual increase in this indicator in the past month continued to increase due to the effect of base and against the backdrop of increase in the second half of PG energy prices. In December 2009 the U.S. CPI rose by 2,7% (g /g) versus -0.9% (g /g) on average for January - October last year.

This information, despite its controversial nature, however, it seems important factor limiting the potential for further growth in the medium-term indicators, the ratio of risk to the profitability of investment instruments.

Similar effect on the quotations of the financial sector has released statistics on Friday December dynamics of industrial production in America. The index in December of this year showed an increase in the level of 0,6% (m /m), corresponding to market expectations. At the same time, its previous value has been revised downward to 0.6% (m /m) against 0.8% previously.

Finally, an indicator of consumer confidence in the U.S., calculated by Reuters and the University of Michigan, in January of this year demonstrated the value of 72.8 points in the average expected increase of the index, specialists and 74 points against 72,5 in the previous billing period.

It is also important to note that despite the increase in profits JPMorgan Chase IV quarter of 2009 to $ 3.28 billion from $ 0.702 billion a year earlier, which was almost 20% higher than average market forecasts, revenues of the investment bank, including securities trading sector fixed income, was below market expectations. In this case the losses at JPMorgan segments of retail banking and credit cards have caused investor concerns about the possible nature of the reporting of other leading U.S. banks, for which these lines of business are more important in terms of financial results.

Statistics corporate results of leading U.S. banks will come on the market already in the environment and probably will have very important effects, including the tendency of exchange rate changes in FX. Greatly influenced the course of currency trading are likely to have also data germanskogo business climate index, ZEW, the dynamics of producer prices and the U.S. leading indicators that go on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Nevertheless, in general, currently declining trend EUR /USD rate in the direction markers support current weekly exchange rate corridor of this currency pair is dominant.

Although the external background and remains ambiguous, in Russia until the market is dominated by the positive mood
MICEX this afternoon, probably will be traded in a weakly negative zone near the mark of 1,445 points
An information plan Monday promises to be quiet and calm
External news background before opening a Russian trading platforms over the negative
Trading volume on the stock market, MICEX Stock Exchange on Friday amounted to 93.38 billion rubles
Gazprom and the Irkutsk region administration discussed the formation of the gas market along the route “Chikanskoye GCM - Sayansk - Irkutsk”
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Late last week working on forex was marked by further strengthening of the currency of refuge against the general decline of interest in risky assets
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