Forex Market. 11.01.2010 g.

 

Macroeconomic information published in the second half of December 2009 - the first decade of January 2010, in general, seem was largely unfavorable to rate the single European currency in nature.

It is worth noting data unexpectedly sharp rise in U.S. CPI, the value of which in November PG under the influence of the increased cost of energy amounted to 1,9% (g /g) vs -0.9% on average for January-October 2009

The November index of retail sales in the euro area in November, PG decreased by 4% (g /g) against the expected average reduction specialists in this indicator on 1,8%, and revised with a relatively small improvement to -1.3% vs. -1.8% previously, the values of this indicator in October 2009, Mr. .

Index of investment confidence in the EMC, according to the Sentix GmbH in December of this year amounted -3,7 Fri against -3,4 item in accordance with the average forecast and -5.5 in the previous month. Finally, the level of unemployment in the euro zone rose in November this year to a mark of 10% against the expected value of this indicator at the level of 9,9% and the figure for the previous month, revised from an increase up to 9,9% against 9,8% previously.

Member of the ECB Yu Stark last week said that the EU does not intend to provide financial assistance to Greece. And the President of Iceland has blocked a bill to pay the country $ 5 billion foreign debt.

Finally, in last Sunday”s U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman B. Bernanke said the Fed is ready to raise rates to prevent the formation of “bubbles”, including the real estate market.

The market expectations are saved to strengthen measures to restrict theinflow of hot money into emerging markets. In particular, emerged in recent weeks, rumors, such actions in respect of investments in the national segment of bonds intended to introduce Taiwan”s leadership.

Nevertheless, given the more than 3 per cent in December by the depreciation of the EUR /USD, such information, at least in terms of immediate prospects, it seems largely won back the market.

Attention is drawn to the fact that the instability of the global macroeconomic statistics and marked in the middle of the IV quarter. 2009 inflationary pressures in developed countries is still quite weak impact on the performance indicators of the dynamics of market investment risk and price volatility.

The information on reducing the number of employed in industries outside of agriculture in the USA, published on Friday, probably contributed to a certain weakening of expectations of a relatively early tightening of monetary policy the Fed. Specified indicator in November this year was equal to - 85 000 against the average forecast of - 5 000, and its previous value, revised from a relatively small increase, up to 4 000 against - 11 000 previously.

Against this background, quotes the euro against the dollar in coming weeks, may show some consolidation in the exchange rate band 1,4300-1,4900.

In terms of medium term, while apparently more stable indicators of trends in U.S. GDP, compared with similar indicators of EMC, as well as factors reflecting the weakening of the finance of the “periphery” of the European Union may provide for the continuation of perceived at the end of 2009 favorable to the rate of USD to the single European currency trend.

 

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