When oil and the U.S. stock market return in the January highs, we can see the long-awaited 1750 points on the RTS

At the current level of oil prices and the index of Dow Jones, just the level of the RTS index (according to our calculations) - 1610 points. At the same time, January 11, “fair” (for those in oil prices and index Dow Jones) the index stood at 1750 points,while the actual RTS index was 1,550 points. Hence, “the gap” between the true and actual value was 13%, and now amounted to about 10%. This was due to the fact that Russia”s stock market was more stable in the face of the correction of global stock and commodity markets than it used to before. We expect that this trend of “better behavior” Russia”s market will continue in the near future. Thus, when oil and U.S. stock market return in the January highs, we can see the long-awaited 1750 points on the RTS index.

But why oil prices and the Dow Jones should return to the levels of the January highs? To this there are two reasons. First, the majority of U.S. companies continue to publish good reporting: yesterday better forecasts have reported 34 companies out of 49, today five out of eight. Good corporate results are a sign of economic recovery. Secondly, on the same evidence and published macroeconomic data: today published data on GDP for the fourth quarter, which turned out much better than expected (5.7% vs expected 4.6%). At this rate the U.S. economy will soon recover to pre-crisis levels. At the same time, a relatively weak labor market and low GDP-deflator (0.6% instead of the expected 1.3%) does not allow to expect tighter monetary policy this year. And if the economy is almost recovered, and the stakes “in times” lower than before the crisis, why the shares should cost less? The same argument can be attributed to commodity prices.

However, with regard to the euro, the potential of its decline has not yet been exhausted. Indeed, if you avoid the risk of an investor, you do not buy bonds in Greece, Spain, Portugal or Ireland - the risks are too high and clear. Of the assets denominated in European currencies, relatively risk-free bonds are only Germanic. But their market is markedly inferior to US Treasures of liquidity and volumes. And if risk-averse - you better buy stocks and bonds of U.S. companies that demonstrate high profits. This logic will facilitate the transition of capital from European assets in the U.S.. So the euro - the weakest link.

Court: Perm “daughter&quod1ct; LUKOIL “lawfully fined 51 million rubles for monopolistically high prices for gasoline
Of the major commodities to maintain positive momentum in Friday morning not only quotations oil
Danylyshyn believes that the sharp rise in sugar prices caused by the artificial Christmas shopping
The Ukrainian government hopes for a successful revision of the IMF stand-by program in the near future
Greece will seek buyers of debt outside of Europe
Analytics - the outcome of the day

Energy, World Stock Market, Currency, Weather …

The rebound in Russia contributed to the market expectation of positive data on U.S. GDP, resulting in closed “shorts”
It is likely that further strengthening of the dollar will constrain the growth of equity markets and adversely affect the oil
If the remaining statistic data did not spoil the mood on the markets, you can expect a continuing positive trend until the end of the session