What will happen to the deposits?
monthly increase of interest on deposits left behind - in the last month of spring, banks have slowed the growth of these rates. Then they will just fall, experts predict. And all because of the fact that race has not met the expectations of interest - people are not in a hurry to return their money to banks. After all, financial institutions, with the interim administration and has not been designed with the holders of the deposits, and people's deputies attempted to force them to return deposits until successful.
rates on deposits in UAH began to rise in May last year, when inflation began to be seen naked eye. In summer, they caught up with and exchange rates. The massive outflow of money from the banking system forced the bankers to offer more favorable conditions for investors. But already two months as the interest is not only frozen, but some places are falling.
will be as before the crisis
Why do we keep a high percentage, if people are once again suffered the money to deposit? - explained the online newspaper on condition of anonymity, Deputy Head of one of the largest banks. In rare cases, rates still rising, but very slightly. According to the company Prostobank Consulting, the average rate for May increased only by savings deposits in UAH - only 0.07 percentage points - at 20,3% per annum. For all other deposit programs emerged decline - also has a small, but a couple of years, experts predict, the interest will return to pre-crisis level.
To reduce the amount of interest there is a very tangible reasons. The national currency has stabilized, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko promised in the near future to further strengthen the hryvnia. According to her, this will facilitate and increase tranche from the IMF, and a slight decline in inflation. In May it was 0.5% compared with April, while in April - 0.9% relative to March, reports Goskomstat. A hryvnia rate and the rate of inflation - the main components of the interest rate on deposits. In the coming two-year deposit rates will decline significantly. But to expect a rapid fall of interest should not be. Notable it will not until next year. On the pre-crisis level in nominal terms can be said by 2011, when inflation goes down. At the same time, real rates will be higher , - predicts in an interview with internet-newspaper analyst of the International Center for Advanced Studies, Alexander Zholud.
in fashion - demand deposits
Adoption
bankers that people once again suffered massively in the money deposit, some exaggerated. Fear of losing money the past has been more willing to make. Despite the high percentage of money made from the banking system in November and December last year, has not yet been returned. The volume of deposits at banks continued to decline, but not as shock speed, as in winter.
Bankers no longer rely on simply increasing interest. In the market of new deposit program, and it is expected that soon they will be more. The most common way to attract new customers - to offer deposits. The total amount of current deposits increased since February, despite the fact that in other programs amount of money entrusted to the banks is decreasing. This means that public confidence in the stability of banks has not yet been returned.
problem banks steadfast
One reason for this distrust in the system - the behavior of banks with a transitional administration, to experts. The problem of the return of deposits, the period for which has expired, only partially solved. In April, a deputy from the Party of Regions Vladislav Lukyanov registered in the Parliament a bill requiring financial institutions to return deposits. Scientific and expert management proposal was not approved because it was not prescribed the mechanism for disbursement of funds. Recently the draft changes have been made - are invited to return the funds through the sale of property, first of all - real estate. Bankers затеи such success has not yet been commented on, offering to wait, when the bill becomes law. Experts say the sale of property not help the cause.
This is a complex process. Banks will be time for the sale of property, they will pull it. For investors fundamentally nothing has changed , - commented online newspaper director of the Center for Political and Economic Analysis Alexander Kawa. In addition, real estate, banks are not so many, most branches hold the leased premises, adds Zholud. Even if the draft becomes law, investors, he is unlikely to help.
Nevertheless, the problem of unpaid deposits remained the main obstacle to the return of confidence in the financial system. And while the Provisional Authority does not find a way to settle the debt, the massive return of deposits will not be.
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