The threat of continuing correction in the Russian stock market becomes a reality
Today's the beginning of the trading on the Russian stock market, despite the negative external environment, it was optimistic, with some 0,5 -%-ing a gap up on the main indices on Russia yesterday's closing values. During the first minutes of trades increased optimism of investors, but with the opening of European stock pads on the market mood has changed for the worse. At the moment, the main Russian blue chips on yesterday's closing trading in the red. As of 12:34 Moscow time the main indicators of the Russian market, the MICEX and RTS indexes are in negative zone, losing, respectively, 1.5% (962.2 forth), and 1.36% (947.34) are . Yesterday's trading ended on the ocean sharp decline. At the end of the trading, Dow Jones, in response to the negative macroeconomic statistics (dismal data from the labor market), fell to 2.626%, to close at 8,280.74 point p, a broad market indicator S P500 lost 2.914%, while its value on the closure of 896.42 Point Dynamics futures index data, is an indicator of investor sentiment at the opening of the American market at this time is neutral. Current value on the Dow futures are in contango total of 7 points or 0.08%. Let me remind you, yesterday became aware of an increase in unemployment in the United States as a result of last week to a record over the past 26 years of values. Despite the fact that these figures were quite expected by analysts, much worse than forecasts proved only a reduction in the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors, traders took this very negative macroeconomic statistics.
Quotations black gold in response to the negative sentiment in financial markets continued to be corrected with marks above 70 U.S. $ /bbl, reflecting a decrease in speculative demand of raw material, which is the sole reason for the persistence of high oil prices in a global recession. Thus, the current values of oil futures to near ekspiratsiey of Brent-WTI and have already represent, respectively, 66.70 U.S. $ /bbl and U.S. $ 66.74 /barrel, about U.S. $ 1.2 lower than yesterday's values.
protecting the market of raw materials from another scale capable of reducing only excess monetary liquidity, whipped inflationary measures supporting the economic growth of the developed countries, which sent investors to the markets, which are traditionally protected from inflation: the oil futures markets and developing countries.
With regard to quotations of Russian blue chips, then at 12:11 Moscow time the major Russian blue chips continue to decrease. For example, shares of Lukoil lost 0.62% (1316 EUR), MMC Norilsk Nickel 3.49% (EUR 2770), Rosneft 1.72% (165.01 EUR), Surgutneftegaz 1,12 % (21.27 USD), Gazprom 1.81% (154.80 EUR), VTB 2.80% (0.0347 USD), Sberbank of 3.09% (36.70 EUR).
Despite the lack of bidding today for the ocean (in the United States today, day off), the trading activity on the Russian stock market is quite high: investors prefer to sell desheveyuschie Russian equities.
Among the most important news today is worth noting the preservation of the ECB rate for the same level (1%) and negative reporting AVTOVAZ.
Maintaining the basic interest rate at 1.0% would, in the opinion of the ECB to stimulate economic growth in the medium term without the threat of the sharp increase in inflation. Also, we note the ECB's willingness to quickly absorb the previously liquidity to the extent of improving the economic situation in order to reduce inflationary pressures in the future. Inflationary pressures in the euro area economy continues to decline. In particular, the May inflation rate was 0.0% in June, according to preliminary estimates, there was deflation at -0.1%. According to the ECB, deflation is due to the high base effect, which is linked to the high prices of resources a year ago. In the next few months, deflation may persist. In the medium term inflation target remains at 2%, so as to improve the macroeconomic situation, the ECB is ready to quickly absorb the previously provided liquidity.
Currency market reacted negatively to the ECB's forecast chapter of the weakness of European economies in the near future. We note that the actions of the ECB is still more conservative in comparison with the actions taken by other major central banks in the world. On the one hand, this may slightly delay the process of rebuilding the economy, but on the other hand, corresponds to the lower inflation risks, with a positive for the economy of the euro in the long run. Also, we note the willingness of the ECB quickly absorb liquidity, as improved economic conditions in order to prevent inflation in the future.
published statements on the basis of AvtoVAZ in 2008 is the expected negative and reflects the sharp decline in sales in the 4 th quarter, as well as significant increases in the price of steel in the first half. Also on the profitability of the company affecting the sharp increase in administrative costs. We expect that due to a sharp fall in sales and the high cost of raw materials and supplies company, on the basis of 2009 will be, with high probability, loss. We appreciate the reporting AvtoVAZ-up in 2008 as expected negative. Due to rising prices for steel and components, production costs rose faster than revenues. As a result, gross profit decreased by 39% to $ 699 million other negative developments in 2008 was the lack of control over the increase in administrative costs, resulting in an increase of 25.3%. Cost of sales also increased significantly - by almost 29%. According to our estimates, in 2009 at AvtoVAZ is likely to get a loss. Manufacturing Company in January-May 2009 fell by 67% compared to same period last year. In addition, the management of AvtoVAZ reported that in the first half of 2009, the cost of raw materials is not reduced in comparison with the second half of 2008. According to management, a loss of 1 half of 2009 amounted to about 10 billion rubles (about $ 323 million).
As regards the situation as a whole in the market, then at this point, we believe the likelihood of continuation of correction is high. At the moment, with the segment of blue chips, we see a prerequisite for development of short-term rising trend in shares of Gazprom, RusGidro and Tatneft. As for other blue chip, we continue to recommend that the monetary stance.
We still recommend that you stay out of the speculative long positions on the most liquid Russian shares in terms of increased market volatility. With respect to the shares of the second tier, in this segment, we also recommend that you lock in the profits of Peak, rampant and Severstal, increasing the amount of cash position in the segment. In doing so, we are still retains a positive view of the long-term prospects for shares in companies small and medium-capitalization, with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend to hold the position long-term data on shares of issuers in the portfolio.
Among them we note the action Kuzbassrazrezuglya, Bamtonnelstroya, IDC Holding, Akron and prefy sylvinite.
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The technical analysis of currency pairs
Oil continues to fall: to mark Brent futures traded slightly above $ 66.5
Yesterday, a pair of Euro /Dollar down on U.S. session to 1.3986
Problem banks: How to exchange a security deposit on the property
Britain took over the head
U УкрГаз-Energo ended gas reserves
Changing anchors
Most of «blue chips» fallen in «red» zone, but the weak buying not give rise to speak on the descending trend
September futures on the RTS index has managed to reach the resistance in the region of 94 000 items
