The reason for the withdrawal of the MICEX Index 1020-1130 from the corridor of items not yet in sight
last week
Last week on the equity market was quite volatile. At the end of the week the major indices changed little. As a result of trades on Friday the MICEX index rose by 2,9% - to 1111.33 points and the RTS index - on 1,77% to 1,089.46 points. Most of the day the paper traded within a narrow range. But by evening, market participants expressed a preference for purchases. Published today at 16:30 statistics in the United States caused a small correction in the stock market. However, the favorable situation on the energy market, as well as on U.S. stock exchanges are not allowed to bear to continue this correction.
U.S. Market
Trades in the United States on Friday ended differently directed changes in stock indexes. The optimism that prevailed in the first minutes of trading, quickly ended. Macroeconomic indicators have been mixed. Meanwhile, news from Dell and Intel have provided support for high-tech sector.
As a result of the auctions the index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 36.28 points, or 0.4%, to 9544 points. The index of wide market SP 500 closed lower at 2.05 points, or 0.2%, at around 1029 points.
Over the past week the index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0,4%, the index of wide market SP 500 has appreciated by 0.3%, and high-tech Nasdaq Composite rose by 0,4%.
With regard to macro-economic statistics, we see that the income of U.S. consumers in July did not change, while disposable income (minus taxes and gosstrahovka) also did not change. Once a state has slowed with the building of his incentive earnings ceased to grow. Last year, total revenues fell by 2.4%, disposable income fell by 0.3%. With the cost a bit better - they increased by 0.2% in July, and for the year decreased by 1.6%, although the major increase in spending was concentrated in the durable goods sector of use, which in July showed growth of 1.3%. Expenditure per capita per month also increased by 0.2%, with an annual decline of expenditure was 2.5%, is slightly better than in June, but the reasons for this, in general, understood.
not difficult to guess that the culprit was a program of cost increases, money for the jalopy, but it is completed, perhaps a little impact on the August expenditures and all, then we get a small failure, but it will be in September, and the data will come only in late October. Since incomes have not changed, but the costs have grown - the savings rate fell to a modest 4.2%, but then again, the rule can resume growth, as State support is not built up as aggressively as in the first half of 2009.
Oil
Crude oil futures on Friday closed with a slight increase, as the conflicting reports regarding the recovery of the U.S. economy limited the continued growth of quotations, which began a day earlier. Rising prices contributed to the weakening dollar.
At the end of trading on NYMEX the October futures for delivery of petroleum of mark WTI rose $ 0.25 to $ 72.74 per barrel.
Asia
Stock Exchanges Asia today showing a decrease in the major indexes because of the increasing appreciation of the yen against the backdrop of the election results in the lower house of parliament in Japan. Democratic Party of Japan won the elections for the lower house of Parliament, receiving 308 out of 480 seats, which enables it to form a government. Prime Minister Taro Aso, in turn, acknowledged the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Against this backdrop, the Japanese Nikkei fell by 0,3%, the index of wide market Topix - by 0,1%. Korean Kospi reduced by 1%. Chinese CSI 300 INDEX fell by more than 5,5%.
Today
External background before opening the bidding in Russia - moderately negative. Mixed dynamics of foreign sites, the fall in oil prices, falling U.S. futures indices do not give cause for optimism.
Based on the above factors, we expect the opening of trading small gepom down. Bulls for the past month, you can not take the mark of 1,130 points, the MICEX Index, which indicates that increased sales at strong levels of resistance. The market has already fed up good news, as evidenced by the positive reaction to the statistics in the United States.
market continues to lateral movement in a broad corridor of 1020-1130 points on the MICEX index and reasons for withdrawal from this corridor is not yet seen.
In the current situation, we continue to recommend investors to be prudent with purchases, as not exclude a strong downward correction in the near future, which can occur suddenly in the background of the deteriorating macroeconomic situation and the mood swings in global financial markets.
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