The external background is neutral for the market of Russia: America closed moderately higher, Asia is trading in different directions
Following Friday the MICEX index lost 2.88%. Trading activity has updated highs this year.
Already in the first half of Friday”s trading the MICEX index confidently struck support for 1365-1375 points, reaching a further 1345 points, where it was formed by local bottom. Within days an attempt was made to resume growth, during which the buyers were able to return the market above 1365-1370 points, but subsequent sales have led to the re-test support at 1,345 points.
The American share indexes on Friday closed a moderate increase. Major purchases came in the last hour of trading and were associated with the expectations of the consolidated actions of members of the EU, aimed at addressing problems of Greece. Better than most when it traded financial sector.
During the Asian trading session, there multidirectional movement of the major indexes. The Japanese market is under pressure against a background of weak corporate reporting (Panasonic, Yamaha Motor). Better market traded securities of commodity companies, which may be associated with expectations to reach the bottom of the local market commodity futures.
Futures Brent crude in the last trading session confidently struck a “double bottom” in the region of $ 71, reaching a further $ 68. Today, futures are traded at around $ 70, which gives hope to rebound upward. The nearest resistance is located in the region of $ 71-72, where possible resumption of sales to the $ 65 per barrel. Overcoming the resistance of $ 72 may lead to re-entry to the $ 74-77.
Futures on the SP 500 this morning, moving around 1,060 points. If you continue to bounce up the main resistance is located at 1070-1080 points, which count on the resumption of decline. Coping with 1080 points, is likely to lead to the test of 1100 points.
If we consider the situation in the SP 500 locally, then blow out to 1,040 items and then return for 1060, likely provides a benefit to “bull”, as it gives rise to a withdrawal of stops on the “Long”, the possible formation of the New waves moving up.
At the same time the overall situation, in our opinion, is already evolving into a new downtrend with the main resistance in the 1100 points, the next target of reducing by 1000 points.
Trading on the Russian stock market will start today with a suspected Gap up. The nearest resistance is located at 1365-1370-1375 points on MICEX. In this area, most likely the first attempts to resume the decline.
In the event that the above points forward to the 1365-1375 test 1400 points on the MICEX Index, helped by flat line of the downtrend, conducted from January to maxima maxima of February. Coming forward to the resumption of sales under the new downtrend. The first of the major objectives for 1200 is expected to points on the MICEX.
So today expect to rebound upwards, which involves the closure of the “short” positions, the search time for the higher entrance to the “short”. In a purely speculative purposes can play to increase to 1400 points on the MICEX. Although if the SP 500 will go to 1100 with a false breakdown in 1110, then the MICEX index can show the 1420 points.
Futures on RTS Index closed the evening session in the area of 142 000 points. Immediate objectives are to bounce up 143,000, then 145,000, 147, 000 points.
On the Trade of the week the main influence would presumably foreign trade balance data for the U.S. for December (Wednesday, 16.30 Moscow time), retail sales for January (Thursday, 16.30 Moscow time).
external background is neutral. America closed moderately higher, oil and gas market is worse, the financial sector better than the market. Asia is trading different directions.
Final recommendations:
Investors - cut position “;
speculators - “bear from 1375, 1400 points on the MICEX”.
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