Possibility of the outcome devaluation of the ruble in the coming weeks remains
According to information received by the market in the last trading day last week, the U.S. CPI index in monthly terms has increased in December 2009 to 0,1% against the average forecast in this case is equal to 0.2% growth and also 0,2% (m /m) in November last year. At the same time, the annual increase in this indicator in the past month continued to increase due to the effect of base and against the backdrop of increase in the second half of PG energy prices. In December 2009 the U.S. CPI rose by 2,7% (g /g) versus -0.9% (g /g) on average for January - October last year.
This information, despite its controversial nature, however, it seems important factor limiting the potential for further growth in the medium-term indicators, the ratio of risk to the profitability of investment instruments.
similar influence on the quotations of the financial sector has released statistics on Friday December dynamics of industrial production in America. The index in December of this year showed an increase in the level of 0,6% (m /m), corresponding to market expectations. At the same time, its previous value has been revised downward to 0.6% (m /m) against 0.8% previously.
Finally, an indicator of consumer confidence in the U.S., calculated by Reuters and the University of Michigan, in January of this year demonstrated the value of 72.8 points in the average expected increase of the index, specialists and 74 points against 72,5 in the previous billing period.
It is also important to note that despite the increase in profits JPMorgan Chase IV quarter of 2009 to $ 3.28 billion from $ 0.702 billion a year earlier, which was almost 20% higher than average market forecasts, revenues of the investment bank, including Among the trade sector, trading fixed income, was below market expectations. In this case the losses at JPMorgan segments of retail banking and credit cards have caused investor concerns about the possible nature of the reporting of other leading U.S. banks, for which these lines of business are more important in terms of financial results.
Statistics corporate results of leading U.S. banks will come on the market already in the environment and probably will have very important effects, including the tendency of exchange rate changes in FX. Greatly influenced the course of currency trading are likely to have also data germanskogo business climate index, ZEW, the dynamics of producer prices and the U.S. leading indicators that go on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, respectively.
However, in general, currently declining trend EUR /USD rate in the direction markers support current weekly exchange rate corridor of this currency pair is dominant.
ruble RF to the USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today by 10:30 Moscow time was 29.59 and 35.44 rubles. against, respectively, 29.55 and 35.43 rubles. rub. on Friday morning.
In general, the possibility of reducing the final value of the ruble from the RF markers near the support 29 rubles. for USD and 35 USD. per unit of the basket in the coming weeks remains.
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