In the stock market positive tendencies
Last week was the first full trading week …
Last week was the first full trading week in the Ukrainian stock market in the new year. New Year”s holidays had passed, began labor weekdays, characterized the current abundance of economic and political news. Sunday was marked by elevated for several reasons, investor interest in the shares of metallurgical sector.
In particular, the sale of a controlling stake, the Industrial Union of Donbass “has continued to stir interest among the participants to the securities metpredpriyatiy (especially belonging to the ISD). Thus, the strategy of the company Astrum Investment Management Konstantin Litvin said on Monday, January 11, the Ukrainian stock market experienced rapid growth due to the optimism of the previous week on international exchanges, as well as jump in shares of Alchevsk Iron and Steel at 19%. “The volume of trading on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange on Monday amounted to 29 million UAH., Indicating that the return of traders from the New Year holidays,” - said the strategist.
only day last week, which showed a decline of the stock market began Tuesday. According to a senior analyst at investment firm Phoenix Capital Andrew gestation, Jan. 12 at the European stock markets dominated by a pessimistic mood. “Unreasonable rally, which began after the New Year and continued past few days, marked correction in the western areas. After them went to the decline and the Ukrainian market”, - said the analyst. However, according to him, all the same Alchevsk Iron and Steel rose on Tuesday - and then continuing to win back news of the sale of ISD Corporation.
The analysts of the investment company Foyil Securities, in its report expressed a different point of view. They believe that by 12 January the Ukrainian stock market finally exhausted the effect of the sale of the corporation ISD Russia”s businessmen. As stated in the report, despite the continuing growth of Alchevsk Metallurgical Combine, whose shares have risen in price on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange on that day for a further 2,6%, most issuers are “back to reality.” Tuesday on Wall Street there was little activity on the background of negative corporate income statements. Similar sentiments dominated also in Europe, analysts said.
regarding the above pessimism on world exchanges, it really was caused by a number of major news. So, Litvin said that the report of the largest U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. and the tightening of monetary policy in China on January 12 provoked a wave of sales on global stock markets. Results Alcoa disappointed investors: on the background of growing income, exceeding analysts” expectations, the company has failed to show a positive profit, which was much worse than market expectations “, - said the strategist.
Besides, he added, China announced an increase in requirements for commercial banks on the number of reserves by 0,5% to prevent the emergence of the credit bubble, and bubbles in the property market. “The Chinese central bank is trying to cool an overheated economy and prevent the emergence of bubbles in a wide range of assets that are subsequently at risk of bursting and cause a wave of capital outflows from the country”, - explained Litvin.
medium yields a quiet day for global markets. According to Litvin, 13 January no significant makronovostey does not go, except for data on oil reserves, which, however, did not affect the stock indexes. Corporate quarterly reports also did not, said the strategist. Of the events of that day that influenced the markets, can be identified unless the speech to representatives of Congress, leaders of major U.S. banks that have received a little over a year ago, emergency aid from the state. As pointed out by K. Litvin, representatives of banks to justify their actions, and apologized for the mistakes. As a result of increased paper financial sector, which helped the overall positive dynamics of the total market.
Despite the fact that the market played on the news ISD, metallurgical sector on Thursday, January 14, again became the engine of growth stock indexes. But this time, encouraging news came from abroad. K. Litvin said that the company Rio Tinto said the high level of demand for iron ore and copper from China. This provoked a wave of demand for the securities industry, including in Ukraine. Metallurgical shares on Thursday rose quite significantly: Azovstal - on 6,7%, Yenakiyevo metkombinata - by 5,4%. Shares Alchevsk Iron and Steel after the New Year”s rally grew more modestly - by 2.1%. The volume of trading on the Ukrainian stock exchanges in the day were at a very high level.
Another event on Jan. 14 had a positive impact on global indices. According to Litvin, U.S. and European stock markets closed on Thursday on expectations of growth of quotations of a strong quarterly report, Intel. The strategist said that the results of this giant of the semiconductor industry, released after market close, exceeded even the most optimistic expectations of analysts.
Naturally, the results released by Intel have created a positive backdrop for the opening of stock markets on Friday. Traders said the investment company Phoenix Capital Irina Barabanov, “a positive trend on the Ukrainian stock market on January 15 was fanned by optimistic news background with world capital markets, as well as the arrival of several large investors in the domestic area.”
Nevertheless, analysts say the company Astrum Investment Management, the major U.S. indexes for the first time after several weeks of a confident growth closed in negative zone. At the end of last week, DJIA fell 0.1% to 10,609.7 points, SP 500 completed a week at around 1,136 points, down 1,1%. The reduction was made possible due to the contradictory statements, which goes on throughout the week, ending on Friday, disappointing reporting JP Morgan, which demonstrated the loss of retail and corporate business bank. JP Morgan opened a series of corporate reporting banks, because this week is expected to yield data Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America and
Goldman Sachs. Analysts expect that all financial institutions to demonstrate a similar picture - the strong results of our investment banking units in loss of retail business, which is under the pressure of high unemployment. “This provision is not a surprise to the market, but each time it reminds of the real state of the economy”, - underline the analysts.
Ukrainian same securities market on the basis of the last week has demonstrated significant growth, which is a very good result, given that the auction took place on the eve of the presidential election. Apparently, the market had plenty of time to accommodate this event. Moreover, the results of the first round of the presidential race were predictable and generally not yielded surprises.
Barabanova believes that the stock market reaction to political events in Ukraine have already followed up the announcement of final results of the second round of elections. And her point of view, confirmed the results of the first “post-election” day. According Barabanovo, January 18 special variations on the Ukrainian market shares in connection with the presidential election did not occur. “Thus, the issuers of the index basket Ukrainian Stock Exchange on Monday showed differently directed dynamics: the share price is more determined bid by global as well as market fundamentals, rather than the events surrounding the elections”, - underlined the trader.
Nevertheless, someone who will be the next President of Ukraine, is an essential factor for the development of the stock market in our country in the long term.
In particular, co-micro-studies CEE Juraj Kotyan said in an analytical report Erste Group, that since the infusion of capital so far will not have a decisive impact on the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), namely, reforms improving the business environment will be the largest stimulus for their economic growth. “Countries in the region should place bets not only on an infusion of capital and labor market dynamics, but also on growth efficiency, which will provide them with more rapid economic growth in comparison with Western Europe” - sure Kotyan.
In 2010, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine will hold an election. Who will come to power, and what reforms they will, and will determine the potential productivity of these countries in the coming years, believe in the Erste Group.
From the new President, the Prime Minister and their policies will largely depend on further economic development (or decline?) of Ukraine. This, in turn, may dramatically affect the direction of movement of the stock market and even its existence in a civilized manner.
So, head of consulting and analytics Stock Company “Atek-Invest Maxim Zbarazkyi believes the main threat to Ukrainian stock market imbalances in public finances - the considerable debts at high interest carries additional risks for investors. According to him, in 2010 the situation on the Ukrainian stock market will depend on the situation in the world economy, as well as the Ukrainian realities.
According &amfa9p;lt;p> Zbarazkyi, if the U.S. economy shows clear signs of recovery, you can expect some outflow of funds from emerging markets and a correction in the stock market. “Undoubtedly, it touches and domestic securities, despite the fact that the Ukrainian stock market, foreign investors a little bit,” - he said.
Zbarazkyi also added that in 2010 is expected gradual recovery of world market of steel products that appear on the income of domestic companies. “Given the number of risks, the yield of 25-30% as a result of 2010 was a good result,” - he said.
So, last week on the Ukrainian stock exchanges have been some positive trends. In particular, the market endured a “political pressure” pre-election situation. In addition, the local sites to large investors. As a consequence, increasing trading volumes. All this inspires some optimism, especially given though contradictory, but often encouraging news about the global economy.
Nevertheless, again waiting for elections. Now the second round …
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