Domestic indices today will be under pressure from speculative sales, which could cost them about 1% of the capitalization

After take-off earlier this week, the world”s leading stock indexes are adjusted. Despite promising statistics on the labor market in the U.S., falling retail sales in Australia and another record on unemployment in New Zealand once again updated the investors” doubts about the pace of recovery in the world economy, which is the reason for the withdrawal of speculative capital into money. The deterioration in economic expectations has led to a correction in prices of basic commodities: crude oil quotes have moved away from the recent local maxima at $ 76.80 per barrel fell to $ 75.6 per barrel. Apparently, the domestic market, after an impressive five-day “race” up, today will be under pressure from the negative external background, which could cost him up to 1% of capitalization. However, while investor interest in risky assets is high, so reducing stock indexes the previous day, rather like a technical commit players arrived.

Trades in the United States ended yesterday, a slight drop in the indices. In the absence of significant publications, investors preferred to take profits after a record two-day growth indices. Dow fell 0.26% to 10,270.55 subsection, SP - on 0,55% to 1,097.28 p. The main disappointment in the market brought the statistics on business activity in the service sector, which accounts for 2 /3 of U.S. GDP. The value of ISM non manufacturing index was 50.5 § in January - lower than expected by analysts. In this case, the employment component remained below 50 paragraph (44 n.), indicating a continuing trend of downsizing. As a consequence, under attack were securities of companies in the consumer sector. Meanwhile, the ADP report on the labor market in the United States, by contrast, was promising: the number of employees in the private sector of the U.S. economy fell by 22 thousand, while the forecast decline of 30 thousand in the corporate sector, good reporting published News Corp and Time Warner, which could in the fourth quarter to go into profit.

In Asia, sales of risky assets increased. Weak retail sales statistics from Australia and the rise in unemployment in New Zealand contributed to the worsening economic expectations in the region and led to a decrease in the major indexes. The regional benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific fell on this background to 0.7%. A drop in prices of raw materials triggered profit-taking in stocks of companies of the extractive sector - industry giants BHP and Rio Tinto falling by 1,2%1000and 2,6% respectively.

An additional reason for leaving investors in the quality of investors” concern was problems with the sovereign debt of European countries, as well as fears of slowing economic recovery in Asia, in particular due to China”s policy to curb the activity of the lending market. As a consequence, against the background of increased demand for treasuries dollar continued to strengthen, thus increasing the pressure on commodity assets.

In all likelihood, against the background of the observed reduction of quotations of raw materials and profit-taking on the major stock exchanges, domestic indices today will come under pressure from speculative sales, which could cost them about 1% of market capitalization. It is doubtful whether the reduction will be more significant. “Appetite” of investors to risk remains high, so with the opening of trading in Europe, the capital may again go into risky assets, taking advantage of their “technical drawdown.”

Today, the opening pressure may be shares of oil and steel companies. However, it is such papers as Severstal, NLMK, Lukoil and Rosneft, when changing trends could lead the growth in the domestic market.

In the energy sector today, FNC reported data for the first half of 2009 according to IFRS, which may support the speculative demand for securities companies. However, for FSK, beginning with January 1, 2010 transition to the RAB, the interim results in 2009 are not essential: a certain interest in eneroaktivy investment companies, as well as policy implementation.

negatively on the actions of generating companies whose stations are located in Siberia (OGK-3, OGK-4, as well as Kuzbassenergo and TGK-13), may affect information about the low prices for electricity as a consequence of RusAl procurement policies of electricity, resulting in losses generators. Despite the growth in consumer prices in the DAM region remained at last year”s level, although in the European part of Russia in January, they beat the records.

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European indexes fell on Wednesday for the first time in 3 days
Forex - results of the day
Analysts” forecasts: domestic exchanges will occur near yesterday”s levels or slightly lower
In the first half of the day in anticipation of the publication of key rates of the Bank of England and the ECB”s strong movement in Russia market unlikely
Strong movement in Russia”s stock market today is not worth waiting
Russia”s stock market after a neutral-negative opening can keep downward momentum
Influence the course of trading today, the U.S. will have statistics on the labor market, as well as data on industrial orders
In the short term “bulls” will be important to defend the support at 1,430 points on the MICEX