Dollar exchange rate to the ruble today on the MICEX was 30.41 rubles
According to information posted on Friday, the U.S. quarterly GDP growth in the IV quarter. 2009 was equal to 5,7% against 2,2% in III kv. PG and the average forecast of in this case 4.7%.
Despite its relatively favorable performance of this indicator, it is worth noting that the increase in GDP of America was in the last quarter to 60% achieved at the expense of recovery - a process that by the end of the year, probably will decline against the backdrop of lower activity measures of state support the economy.
Segment investments in risk “, may take into account this fact and conclusion of last week for him was” bearish “.
Generally speaking, in recent times, the reaction of EUR /USD rate on macroeconomic data has become more “traditional” market has no wins back positive data on the U.S. economy as a factor contributing to increased capital flows to emerging markets and, indirectly, to the European financial system.
additional negative pressure on the quotations of assets in the event proved, perhaps, news from the International Economic Forum in Davos. On it, in particular, Professor of Economics at New York University, N. Roubini made a prediction about the inevitability of the “second wave” of the crisis, which the source and the most vulnerable to its influence region remains the euro zone.
Chapter Royal Dutch Shell Plc P. Возер, noted that this year we again expect rising oil prices, as well as restoring the world economy will increase demand for energy.
Such information in the sum could lead to increased market fears of stagflation in the world economy, and so that seems to be already beginning to recoup the leading trading floors.
Chairman of the Board of Directors of Soros Fund Management George Soros has suggested that a viable alternative to the dollar next year will not be, the euro, “their problems”, while the British economy is in worse shape than the U.S. economy.
Finally, attending the summit, top managers of some of the largest banks in the world, such as Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Barclays Plc said their concerns about the adequacy of proposed measures to reform the global financial system and their conformity with the stated objective. The conflict between regulators and credit-investment structures have already moved into the political field, which is an additional medium-term factor contributing to increased market volatility.
In general, the potential for further strengthening the U.S. dollar exchange rate on the FX, including the current week”s trend at the moment remains.
In the short run, however, for the players on the decline of the currency pair EUR /USD remain relatively high, including technical, risk recovery quotes the single European currency lost part of the recent positions.
U.S. President Barack Obama will make today to the Congress of the U.S. budget for 2011 FG According to information published in the weekend, the deficit of the public treasury of America will be projected to the Administration of $ 1.6 trillion. to $ 1.4 trillion. on the basis of the past year. Thus, in the medium term growth rate will decline by only the U.S. budget deficit, but not the figure.
political and financial leadership of the U.S. demonstrates its willingness to follow the recommendations of the IMF and some other leading world governing structures in favor of conservation in the major economies of centralized fiscal policy monetary economic incentive, although associated with these practices long-term financial threat.
ruble RF to the USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today to 11:30 Moscow time was 30.41 and 35.72 rubles. against, respectively, 30,46 and 35,85 rub. on Friday morning.
possibility of the outcome of further depreciation of the ruble of Russia in the foreign exchange market in the medium term remains.
Meanwhile, according to comments published in the weekend RF Finance Minister Kudrin, Russia”s ruble is currently at an equilibrium position, no major shift in policy will not be. “Right now, compared to what it was before the crisis, oil prices are very reasonable, in that sense we do not have any large jumps of the ruble, and now we can say that the ruble in the equilibrium position of some major changes will not be “- said Russia”s Finance Minister in an interview with TV channel” Russia 1.
Perhaps in the short term quotes RUB on FX expects some stabilization.
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