SP revised the outlook on the ratings of Ukraine to the negative to positive. Ratings affirmed
rating service Standard Poor's revised the outlook on Ukraine's sovereign debt rating to negative to positive. This is stated in a message S P.
According to the report, at the same time confirmed the long-term and short-term credit ratings of Ukraine: on liabilities in foreign currencies - at the level of CCC /C '; for liabilities in national currency - at the level of B-/C . In addition, the rating is confirmed at the national scale - at the level of uaBBB.
SP said that the revision of the forecast reflects the recent progress in implementing structural reforms in fiscal and financial sectors in accordance with the terms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on granting Ukraine credit adjustment of $ 16 billion, resulting in the payment of the third credit tranche volume of 3.3 billion dollars earlier this week.
Very flexible approach IMF to the schedule of payments and budgetary support component (compared with the original program) indicated support for the Ukrainian shareholders of the IMF, - said the credit analyst of Standard Poor's Franklin GILL.
It is submitted that, having received more than 60% of IMF credit, the Government of Ukraine has proved capable of infusion into the financial system of the country of more than 5% of GDP, while the budget deficit in 2009 will increase from 0% to 6% of GDP.
SP stresses that a strong and coordinated actions implemented in the banking sector to increase the confidence of depositors. To meet the deadline set by the IMF, the government chose to issue a series of orders and not carry out these legislative changes through Parliament.
At the same time, the rating agency said that the continued political and economic risks in the presidential elections in January 2010 In the future investment needs in the financial system will continue to be highly affected by the economic situation, including trends in the exchange rate, which, basically, remained stable in 2009 due to the introduction of various measures to control capital in the medium term.
According to SP, the period of economic recovery and its extent will depend above all on the external situation, the conditions of foreign trade in Ukraine and the Government's commitment to implement the unfinished part of the IMF program. The possibility that the debt obligations of the state-owned Naftogaz will be restructured, not directly affect the creditworthiness of the Ukraine, because the government did not gave direct assurances on the obligations of the company.
forecast Positive reflects the improved economic outlook for Ukraine, primarily due to the scale and flexibility supports the country - both bilateral and multilateral - stressed F. GILL. - Predictability policy continues to be weak because of weak institutions and the frequent Turnover Officials country.
Implementation of the remaining part of the IMF program could provide a basis for more sustainable growth and improve fiscal performance and, consequently, lead to an increase in the rating of Ukraine under obligations in foreign currency. On the other hand, delays in the implementation of the program could lead to a reduction in the confidence of depositors and investors in the economy and the exchange rate, which in turn may have a negative impact on the ratings, said S P.
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