FOREX and Stock Market Analysis

correction only dream

morning external background for the Russian sites were predominantly negative. In particular, on Monday the U.S. stock market was closed for the holiday. At the Asian markets today, there was negative dynamics caused by the expectation of weak corporate reports of major companies. In leaders decline were shares of technology and financial companies. Commodity markets demonstrate the growth of a weaker dollar. However, oil prices slightly adjusted after yesterday”s significant growth, particularly just before the opening of the domestic oil market has lost about 0.3%.

Throughout the day the market”d play lower oil quotes and the negative statistics from Germany. Thus, oil futures per barrel of Brent at the closure of sites lose more than 1.24% and 13.00 Moscow time released ZEW confidence index in Germany has shown decline to 47.2 points, while analysts predicted decline only to 50 points. However, the situation changed dramatically after the opening of overseas sites and already under closure of both the index was able to reverse the loss of the day and go to the above-zero area. In general, I think, in the coming days to talk about any serious correction is not necessary. Despite the local correction oil quotations, the market supports the positive dynamics of virtually all primary sites and overseas indices. Moreover, at this point in the U.S. corporate reporting season has begun, which, from our point of view, as well as the previous one is quite positive and will support the stock market.

Of the interesting events in the second echelon may be noted CMI statement refuting information about the pending sale of the energy business Belon. The company also expressed an interest in the development of this direction. In general, the energy business Belon currently generates about 30% of the company”s revenues, but there is growth potential production at the mine Listvyazhnaya from the current 2.6 million tonnes per year to 3.5 million tons. We believe that the sale of energy assets Belon would rather negative decision for the company, limiting the business model only coking coal. Therefore, we regard the decision of the CMI to develop energy business Belon as a positive for stocks last. Our fair assessment of the shares is $ 0.9 Belon, growth potential - 15%. For the solution of72f the CMI, we consider neutral, taking into account the relative non-core energy business and its small scale within the group. Currently, our recommendation on shares of CMI is to be reviewed.

---

High profitability - the result of a successful trading strategy. Choose the appropriate strategy in the Trade Center.

log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first!

Analyst Ratings

read more…

Hold powerful supports for the leading of the Russo market contributes technical rebound

today”s session on domestic platforms opened mixed dynamics, after which the market took possession of “bear” sentiment. Sale contributed primarily fall in oil prices caused by the strengthening U.S. dollar. On the currency market was influenced by statistics on consumer prices in the UK, before the publication of which EUR /USD pair consolidated near the level of 1,44. Consumer inflation significantly exceeded forecasts that the dollar has strengthened against the euro and the currency pair down to the support 1,43. Due to strengthen the U.S. dollar futures for Brent crude had struck down the $ 76 mark per barrel.

additional negative pressure on the tender had record Citigroup, which fell short of expectations - a loss the bank exceeded predictions. The weak results of the financial structure returned futures index SP 500 to the strong support (1127 points), which he held since the start of the year. Come to support and most liquid securities market of Russia, which contributed to the technical reversal.

In the course of trading on the floors of U.S. pressure willhave a weak record of Citigroup, which primarily affect the dynamics of the shares of the financial sector. However, within the session in America is possible to form an ascending dynamics on expectations of a positive report, IBM, which will be announced after the end of trading on the U.S. market. Last week, the report provided a strong Intel, which has led to a surge in demand in the securities of Rostelecom, which in the event meet the expectations of tomorrow can again look better market, especially in view of the adjustable mood prevailing in the securities of companies today.

interesting idea can become tomorrow”s paper and steel sector, which today traded good market. Equity industry increased substantially for the previous week, so buying in the medium term look unattractive. Tomorrow speculative demand in the securities sector may arise in case the announcement of positive data on industrial production in China, which will be disclosed before the start of trading on the domestic stock market. Since June last year, the growth of this indicator is measured in two-digit numbers.

Hold strong support level for the Index futures SP 500 increases the attractiveness of open long positions for tomorrow. Expected intense session. First, continue to publish reports of financial structures of the United States. Secondly, the block statistic data will be published on the American economy. According to forecasts, data on consumer inflation will be fairly low. First, the data will be viewed through the prism of the Fed: a slowdown of inflation favors the policy of low rates.

log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 2.

Analyst Ratings

read more…

hryvnia turnover of electronic payments via WebMoney in 2009 amounted to 1 billion 397 million UAH., which is two times higher than in 2008 (663 million grn).

This was reported today by the press office of the company.

number registered in the system of Ukrainian citizens has reached 1 million 550 thousand people. Average per day in the system logs about 1500 Ukrainian users. The most popular means to supplement purses - payment terminals, followed by bank payments, dealers and prepaid cards.

Number of transactions in 2009 reached 4.5 million, while average transaction was approximately 310 UAH. Most activity has traditionally been recorded in December.

In 2009, on a p2p payments WebMoney had approximately 50% of turnover, on charges c2b in favor of sellers of goods and services - about 40%. Another 10% were payments b2c (payout slot winnings, bonuses, rewards on partner programs, fees, royalties, etc.). read more…

In 2010, NERC intends to adopt the new methodology of tariff for the services of power companies to transfer and delivery of electricity. The new procedure will encourage suppliers to reduce costs and improve service quality for consumers.

National Commission Electricity Regulation in the first quarter of this year, plans to develop a new procedure for the formation of tariffs for services of natural monopolies, power companies, which will contain elements of incentive regulation and energy suppliers will abolish the current model of cost-based pricing.

As the chairman of the Public Council at NERC and the president of the Energy Association of Ukraine Vasyl Kolko, regulators intend to prepare a document as quickly possible, and then proceed to its adoption later this year.

“This is the only tool that can compel power companies to reduce costs and improve its efficiency in the interests of all parties, including consumers. Europe has a long abandoned existing in Ukraine is still cost-based pricing model, which removes the economic incentives for power companies. Stimulating Methods tariff - a substitute for competitive mechanisms for natural monopolies “, - said Kolko.

According to him, the new model will include the establishment of tariffs for transmission and supply of electricity for a long termperiod of five to seven years with a guaranteed rate of return, as well as a partial view of the inflationary component and the level of implementation of company standards for quality and service. In the case of non-power companies set standards for the price of services the company will - accordingly - to decrease and vice versa. read more…

Last week was the first full trading week in the Ukrainian stock market in the new year. New Year”s holidays had passed, began labor weekdays, characterized the current abundance of economic and political news. Sunday was marked by elevated for several reasons, investor interest in the shares of metallurgical sector.

In particular, the sale of a controlling stake, the Industrial Union of Donbass “has continued to stir interest among the participants to the securities metpredpriyatiy (especially belonging to the ISD). Thus, the strategy of the company Astrum Investment Management Konstantin Litvin said on Monday, January 11, the Ukrainian stock market experienced rapid growth due to the optimism of the previous week on international exchanges, as well as jump in shares of Alchevsk Iron and Steel at 19%. “The volume of trading on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange on Monday amounted to 29 million UAH., Indicating that the return of traders from the New Year holidays,” - said the strategist.

only day last week, which showed a decline of the stock market began Tuesday. According to a senior analyst at investment firm Phoenix Capital Andrew gestation, Jan. 12 at the European stock markets dominated by a pessimistic mood. “Unreasonable rally, which began after the New Year and continued past few days, marked correction in the western areas. After them went to the decline and the Ukrainian market”, - said the analyst. However, according to him, all the same Alchevsk Iron and Steel rose on Tuesday - and then continuing to win back news of the sale of ISD Corporation.

The analysts of the investment company Foyil Securities, in its report expressed a different point of view. They believe that by 12 January the Ukrainian stock market finally exhausted the effect of the sale of the corporation ISD Russia”s businessmen. As stated in the report, despite the continuing growth of Alchevsk Metallurgical Combine, whose shares have risen in price on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange on that day for a further 2,6%, most issuers are “back to reality.” Tuesday on Wall Street there was little activity on the background of negative corporate income statements. Similar sentiments dominated also in Europe, analysts said.

regarding the above pessimism on world exchanges, it really was caused by a number of major news. So, Litvin said that the report of the largest U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. and the tightening of monetary policy in China on January 12 provoked a wave of sales on global stock markets. Results Alcoa disappointed investors: on the background of growing income, exceeding analysts” expectations, the company has failed to show a positive profit, which was much worse than market expectations “, - said the strategist.

Besides, he added, China announced an increase in requirements for commercial banks on the number of reserves by 0,5% to prevent the emergence of the credit bubble, and bubbles in the property market. “The Chinese central bank is trying to cool an overheated economy and prevent the emergence of bubbles in a wide range of assets that are subsequently at risk of bursting and cause a wave of capital outflows from the country”, - explained Litvin.

medium yields a quiet day for global markets. According to Litvin, 13 January no significant makronovostey does not go, except for data on oil reserves, which, however, did not affect the stock indexes. Corporate quarterly reports also did not, said the strategist. Of the events of that day that influenced the markets, can be identified unless the speech to representatives of Congress, leaders of major U.S. banks that have received a little over a year ago, emergency aid from the state. As pointed out by K. Litvin, representatives of banks to justify their actions, and apologized for the mistakes. As a result of increased paper financial sector, which helped the overall positive dynamics of the total market.

Despite the fact that the market played on the news ISD, metallurgical sector on Thursday, January 14, again became the engine of growth stock indexes. But this time, encouraging news came from abroad. K. Litvin said that the company Rio Tinto said the high level of demand for iron ore and copper from China. This provoked a wave of demand for the securities industry, including in Ukraine. Metallurgical shares on Thursday rose quite significantly: Azovstal - on 6,7%, Yenakiyevo metkombinata - by 5,4%. Shares Alchevsk Iron and Steel after the New Year”s rally grew more modestly - by 2.1%. The volume of trading on the Ukrainian stock exchanges in the day were at a very high level.

Another event on Jan. 14 had a positive impact on global indices. According to Litvin, U.S. and European stock markets closed on Thursday on expectations of growth of quotations of a strong quarterly report, Intel. The strategist said that the results of this giant of the semiconductor industry, released after market close, exceeded even the most optimistic expectations of analysts.

Naturally, the results released by Intel have created a positive backdrop for the opening of stock markets on Friday. Traders said the investment company Phoenix Capital Irina Barabanov, “a positive trend on the Ukrainian stock market on January 15 was fanned by optimistic news background with world capital markets, as well as the arrival of several large investors in the domestic area.”

Nevertheless, analysts say the company Astrum Investment Management, the major U.S. read more…

The total loan portfolio TMK 31 December 2009 amounted to $ 3 729 million, including 66% long-term debt and 34% short-term debt, the company reported. This cash and short-term deposits as at end of year $ 243 million. Short-term debt of the company includes VTB loans worth $ 750 million, which provides for the possibility of prolongation for up to five years.

In 2009, in the process of active short-term debt refinancing TMK significantly improves the structure of the debt portfolio, the statement says. Key funding, involvement in 2009, includes:

• Loans Gazprombank totaling $ 1.1075 billion in January 2009 with a subsequent reduction in interest rates and lengthening maturities from 2.5 to 5 years;
• VTB loans totaling $ 750 million, the company used to pay off the first Eurobond issue and the partial redemption of the second Eurobond issue;
• Loans Savings Bank in the equivalent of $ 465 million, including a loan of $ 188 million maturity of 7 years;
• Loans Gazprombank and VTB equivalent to $ 341 million as part of credit agreements worth 5 billion rubles for a period of 3 years and 10 billion rubles for a period of 5 years, respectively, 50% of state guarantees for Russia. read more…

POLE GOLD
Surrounding levels of support: 1601.7 /1600.0 /1550.5 /1518.9 /1500.0
Surrounding resistance levels: 1645.4 /1650.0 /1657.7 /1700.0

Following the last trading session, the shares of Polyus Gold added to the value of 0,882%, to close at 1,612.11 rubles. Level of support once again made 21-day moving average, passing near the psychologically significant level of 1600 rubles.

External background, formed the opening of trading on the equity market for the shares of Polyus Gold is positive, which is associated with an increase in gold prices after the close of trading yesterday. Increased cost of gold futures is linked to the situation on the currency market, where the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro. Level of support, which looks good for opening long positions is 1600 rubles. The immediate goal of the shares is 1645.4 rubles., In the case of achieving this mark would recommend to reduce their long positions.

GAZPROM
nearest support levels: 190.00 /186.40 /182.56 /180.00
Surrounding resistance levels: 192.10 /193.18 /196.90 /200.00

Gazprom shares on the basis of the trading session on Monday was added to the value of 1,352% to close at 190.40 rubles. Resistance level during the session made psychologically significant mark of 190 rubles. Above which was able to complete auction for shares in Gazprom. Also in the basket on the eve of the shares of the company was able to return to the steeply rising trend.

Opening on shares of the company is expected in the negative zone, which is associated with a decrease in futures for U.S. indices, and the price of oil. Thus, support for 190 rubles. already at the opening can be punched down. However, in my opinion, the morning decline is used to build long positions, probably because the building upward momentum. The immediate resistance for the shares of “Gazprom” is the maximum last trading session - 192,1 rubles.

LUKOIL
Surrounding levels of support: 1721.80 /1704.05 /1700.00 /1686.68
Surrounding resistance levels: 1750.00 /1771.00 /1800.0

Shares LUKoil tested the resistance on the eve of 1750 rub. but above this mark the shares to close failed. Following the last session, shares of the company added in the value of 0,753% to 1,745.0 rubles.

decline in oil prices contributes to a negative opening on the securities company. Also at the opening of the sale may be associated with a decrease in index futures on S P500, which is trading at slightly lower levels compared with the closing of Russia”s stock market. Negative beginning of the session, during which the shares may return to the level of resistance (1721.8 rub.) Can be used for opening long positions in order to rebound. The closest resistance continues to act 1750 rub.

SBERBANK
nearest support levels: 90.00 /85.10 /83.30 /82.31
Surrounding resistance levels: 90.65 /95.00

Sberbank shares up to the last session added 2,654%, to close at 90.49 rubles. Driver of growth for the shares of the banking sector was the expectation on the eve of reporting Citigroup, which will be announced today before the opening of trading in the U.S.. Sberbank”s shares managed to overcome before the psychologically significant mark 90 rub. and near zkrytsya updated annual maximum.

External background, formed the opening of Russia”s stock market was moderately negative, which is associated with correction of futures for U.S. indices and oil prices. Shares weak financial sector and look at the sites of Asia, which contributes to profit-taking in the shares of Sberbank. The immediate support is 90 rubles., Which can be broken. In this case, the action will rush to the bottom of the trend, to which the potential drop of more than 7,5%. In the case of retention of around 90 rubles. can be formed next upward movement, followed by profit-taking on the reporting Citigroup.

VTB
Surrounding levels of support: 7,03 /7,00
Surrounding resistance levels: 7,62 /8,00

VTB shares before the added cost 0,536% and closed at the psychologically significant mark of 7.50 kopecks.

After the closure of Russia”s market on the eve of the external background slightly deteriorated, contributing to a negative opening on the shares to VTB. So, will speak on the eve of the closing level of resistance. However, in anticipation of reporting Citigroup, as well as other statements of financial institutions in the U.S. shares the banking sector again may be formed of purchase. The immediate goal for the shares is 7.62 kopecks.

log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material on 2,5.

Analyst Ratings

read more…

Constitutional Court (CC) has recognized a constitutional decision of the Government of Ukraine on the establishment of the State Specialized Enterprise “Ukrspetstorg” and its approval to the sale of military equipment in the domestic market as well as the elimination of the Department of State surplus property and land.

of the relevant Basic Law, the Cabinet of Ministers on February 11, 2009 “Some problems in the implementation of military property” filed in the Constitutional Court president.

The Constitutional Court decision noted that the Department of State surplus property and land is a governmental body within the Ministry of Defense, and its ruling government has not changed the overall structure of the armed forces, but only reorganized the activities of the Ministry of Defense, stopping the activities of this department. read more…

Perspective: believe that the immediate goal (in January), the growth of the MICEX Index is around 1540 on, support - at 1454 n.

Despite the low turnover and limited external liquidity on the occasion of the day off in the U.S., Russia”s stock market showed a clear mood for continued growth. Frankly, it was hard to expect otherwise, given the preceding nearly 3-month consolidation of the market (October /December). Leaving such a long consolidation involves a substantial change of market price levels (see below). Dynamics of trade position (indicator OBV-Comp) on the MICEX index clearly points to the entrance to the new money with an eye on the medium (~ 3 months.) And long (~ 9 mo.) Perspective.

This process of reassessment may require a sufficiently long time interval, which we estimate at about 1.5-2 months, depending on the forces of change, ie, probably before the end of February /early March with a possible intermediate correction ( mid-February). On the market there is money and there is an understanding that if the economic recovery today”s share price may increase substantially. By some estimates the growth of industrial production in December 2009 could significantly increase (by 6-8% higher than in December 2008). Apparently, Russia”s economy was in late 2009, the bottom of the next investment cycle (average cycle length of ~ 3.5 years). This clearly tells the dynamics of growth of investment in fixed capital Russian enterprises (Figure 1).

Next. From the standpoint of market cycles, the end of last year /beginning of the current situation coincides with the characteristic rhythmic point, reflecting the critical moment of market instability (Fig. 2). Earlier manifestations of this rhythm: 19/03/96 (the presidential rally in 1996), 4/11/00 (the beginning of the fall of the markets against the backdrop of the Argentine crisis), 17/05/05 (the beginning ofthe commodity rally). The periodicity of this cycle is approximately 239 weeks. Curiously, the “launch” of this series took place in the time of the August coup of 91.

In relation to many developing markets of Russia”s market now looks cheap enough, which is largely due to the effects of a collapse in 2008. Recovery growth in 2009 has allowed a few to reduce our backlog of other developing markets. However, we still remain in the group of outsiders, especially noticeable in relation to the markets of BRIC. But this is what makes today”s purchase of Russian securities attractive in terms of a more distant perspective.

immediate objective (in January), the growth of the MICEX Index is around 1540 on, support - at 1454 n. (IAD-5).

log in and see the material;; 8; users rated material at 3.

Analyst Ratings

read more…

19.01.10 condition at 10:00 the Kiev Banks and Items of currency exchange (CEMs) are most often purchase 1 USD at the price of 8.1000 UAH, that is no different from yesterday”s rate and the offer price 8.1500 UAH, that it is cheaper to 1.00 kopeks.

Offers

Banks and Brokers to purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 8.0500 - 8.1250 UAH.

best offer to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
8.1250 UAH - Trust-Capital;; Arsenal;; SDUSHOR-Kiev;;
8.1200 UAH - INDEX-BANK;; National Capital;; Pivdencombank KO;; Pivdencombank KF;; Unexbank;; Absolute;; Altair-group;; Nick;;

Offers

Banks and Brokers to sell 1 USD fluctuate within 8.1490 - 8.1800 UAH.

best offer on sale of 1 USD at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
8.1490 UAH - Premium;;
8.1500 UAH - VAB Bank;; Business Standard;; Prominvestbank ;; Synthesis on number 1;; Trust-Capital;; Unexbank;; Artada;; Nick;;

;

Today

Banks and Brokers most often buy 1 EUR price 11.7000 UAH, that are higher by 5.00 kopecks. than yesterday and the offer price 11.8000 UAH, which is cheaper to 5.00 kopeks.

Offers

Banks and Brokers to buy 1 EUR ranging 11.4900 - 11.7200 UAH.

best offer to buy 1 EUR at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
11.7200 UAH - Trust-Capital;; Arsenal;;
11.7100 UAH - Artada;; Inter ;; Nick;;

Offers

Banks and Brokers to sell 1 EUR ranging 11.7590 - 11.9000 UAH. read more…