FOREX and Stock Market Analysis

Ukraine does not surprises

The situation in global markets remains very uncertain, many market participants in Russia and abroad fear the real wave of crisis, when it should be noted that the new real negative we have not recently seen, the entire negative was already known. From our point of view of the world”s monetary authorities will be able to resolve all known and unknown problems. And to take or not take risks the current situation is a matter of taste.

On the background of uncertainty in global venues, we have noted that America was closed in plus, and the rebound of oil prices we expect a neutral open Russian trade, better than the market at today”s auction will be oil and gas sector. In favor of recovery in oil prices also suggests cold-established on the east coast of the USA. In favor of the bears will likely further weakening of the ruble.

However, we consider it necessary to draw attention to a very serious fundamental risk. The EU is the largest foreign trade partner of Russia. And the serious problems of its economy, can cause not only a drop in prices for oil and gas, respectively, and reduced consumption of physical volumes of Russian energy. Russia has begun to diversify energy supplies is too late.

Ukraine did not actually surprises, preliminary victory of Viktor Yanukovych closing the gap and the appearance of uncertainty. As a result of processing 89.13% of protocols Yanukovych won 48.55% votes, Yulia Timoshenko - 45.79% gap is closing. We evaluate the results of Ukrainian election positively. Naturally, the victory of Yanukovych more preferable for Russia to be completed a foreign policy confrontation, Russian business, which is not granted to the former Ukrainian authorities have the opportunity for normal business and investment activity in Ukraine. However, Yanukovych is unlikely to be able to attract serious investment in Gazprom”s gas transportation system of Ukraine. Gazprom will always consider Ukraine as a transit country risky. Naturally the implementation of the Northern and Southern streams remain the priority business Gazprom.

Unlikely, but possible victory for Yulia Tymoshenko did not directly threatened by Russian gas transit to Europe. In this case, we will evaluate the results of the Ukrainian elections neutral.
Bashneft ready to announce the offer to minority shareholders bashTEKa, price is not disclosed. Ministry of Natural Resources may withdraw the license for Kovykta in Rusia Petroleum, will be funny, if then Gazprom will receive iteb9, respectively, this scenario does not include any payments “tank men”. Kovykta gas reserves - 2.1 trillion cubic meters. m (C1 C2). In summer 2007, TNK-BP signed a memorandum with Gazprom to sell stake in Rusia Petroleum for $ 900 million News as neutral for the market of Gazprom.

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Following Friday the MICEX index lost 2.88%. Trading activity has updated highs this year.

Already in the first half of Friday”s trading the MICEX index confidently struck support for 1365-1375 points, reaching a further 1345 points, where it was formed by local bottom. Within days an attempt was made to resume growth, during which the buyers were able to return the market above 1365-1370 points, but subsequent sales have led to the re-test support at 1,345 points.

The American share indexes on Friday closed a moderate increase. Major purchases came in the last hour of trading and were associated with the expectations of the consolidated actions of members of the EU, aimed at addressing problems of Greece. Better than most when it traded financial sector.
During the Asian trading session, there multidirectional movement of the major indexes. The Japanese market is under pressure against a background of weak corporate reporting (Panasonic, Yamaha Motor). Better market traded securities of commodity companies, which may be associated with expectations to reach the bottom of the local market commodity futures.

Futures Brent crude in the last trading session confidently struck a “double bottom” in the region of $ 71, reaching a further $ 68. Today, futures are traded at around $ 70, which gives hope to rebound upward. The nearest resistance is located in the region of $ 71-72, where possible resumption of sales to the $ 65 per barrel. Overcoming the resistance of $ 72 may lead to re-entry to the $ 74-77.

Futures on the SP 500 this morning, moving around 1,060 points. If you continue to bounce up the main resistance is located at 1070-1080 points, which count on the resumption of decline. Coping with 1080 points, is likely to lead to the test of 1100 points.

If we consider the situation in the SP 500 locally, then blow out to 1,040 items and then return for 1060, likely provides a benefit to “bull”, as it gives rise to a withdrawal of stops on the “Long”, the possible formation of the New waves moving up.

At the same time the overall situation, in our opinion, is already evolving into a new downtrend with the main resistance in the 1100 points, the next target of reducing by 1000 points.

Trading on the Russian stock market will start today with a suspected Gap up. The nearest resistance is located at 1365-1370-1375 points on MICEX. In this area, most likely the first attempts to resume the decline.

In the event that the above points forward to the 1365-1375 test 1400 points on the MICEX Index, helped by flat line of the downtrend, conducted from January to maxima maxima of February. Coming forward to the resumption of sales under the new downtrend. The first of the major objectives for 1200 is expected to points on the MICEX.

So today expect to rebound upwards, which involves the closure of the “short” positions, the search time for the higher entrance to the “short”. In a purely speculative purposes can play to increase to 1400 points on the MICEX. Although if the SP 500 will go to 1100 with a false breakdown in 1110, then the MICEX index can show the 1420 points.

Futures on RTS Index closed the evening session in the area of 142 000 points. Immediate objectives are to bounce up 143,000, then 145,000, 147, 000 points.

On the Trade of the week the main influence would presumably foreign trade balance data for the U.S. for December (Wednesday, 16.30 Moscow time), retail sales for January (Thursday, 16.30 Moscow time).
external background is neutral. America closed moderately higher, oil and gas market is worse, the financial sector better than the market. Asia is trading different directions.

Final recommendations:
Investors - cut position “;
speculators - “bear from 1375, 1400 points on the MICEX”.

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After the end of last week, the U.S. currency reached its highs in many months against their European rivals since the market opening after the weekend could be seen rolling back in the opposite direction, after which, however, the dollar was able to update their months of highs.

The main reason that led the dollar at the height of last week, investors were concerned about the problems of the state budget deficit of Greece. However, in anticipation of the publication package of essential economic data both in Europe and in the States, against the background of a gradual rise in stock indexes, market participants are gradually relaxed. Even pre-election instability in the UK, where conservatives seem to take place at the wheel, relegating the ruling Labor Party, failed to prevent the consolidation of European currencies.
On Wednesday, after it learned of the plan for approval by the European Commission in Greece to reduce budget deficits, the euro began to give more than a dollar 1.4000 (maximu1000m 1.4025), while the pound - around 1.6050. Later, however, the enthusiasm of investors pougas: publication of data on index PMI services UK showed that the index in January was not 56.5, but only 53.5. This marked the beginning of the competition USD retracement from the highs reached a week in which the pound came back to 1.5900, euro went below 1.3900 the dollar /yen could rise by almost 100 basis points to 91.00 and the pair USD /CHF - 1.0500 to fend off peak hours 1.0599.

It is also worth noting that the position of the Australian and New Zealand dollars have also suffered this week. Interest rates in Australia, contrary to expectations, were not increased, but remained stable, resulting in a country”s currency sharply on the same day cheaper by a penny, lost in district 0.8800, and then - even lower. In New Zealand, not all was right with the unemployment rate, which fell, as expected, up 6.5%, while, by contrast, rose to 7.3%. Now 1 NZD worth less than 70 cents, which has not been since September last year.

At the end of the week the dollar has appreciated further strengthened since the fall of stock indices, which began in Asia and was spreading to Europe first, and then to the States permanently alienated from the desire of investors to risk, so they rushed to sell riskier assets, including currencies from relatively high interest rates and buy dollars and Japanese yen. At the same time interest rates in the euro zone and Britain were left unchanged, but markets exaggerated news that financial problems become apparent not only in Greece but now also in Portugal. read more…

If ordinary Ukrainian citizen for the past five years, monthly postponed for 10% of their salary on deposit in dollars, it could save about 47 thousand UAH. Reserve in gold bullion during the same period amounted to only 17,7 thousand UAH.

Even fewer investors would have gained by delaying the money in a deposit account in UAH: 12,1 thousand UAH for five years. By investing in the stock market (PFTS) and mutual investment funds, it would have saved 11 thousand UAH. Investments in the secondary property market would have enabled him to collect 7 thousand UAH.

These data - the results of its own editorial research. We asked the question: can the average Ukrainian to become a millionaire within a few years, following one of the main board of the Western financial guru: regularly investing 10% of their income. Most of the foreign financial advisers insist that even with meager income for only 5-10 years can save a million, most importantly - permanently reinvest the profits.

Certainly, our study rather simplistic and ignores several important factors. First, the share of investments (10% of revenue), we calculated on the basis of the official average wage, calculated by Goskomstat. Naturally, these figures are understated and do not reflect the actual compensation of Ukrainian citizens. In 2005, the average official salary was UAH 640.86. For the depressed regions, this amount of remuneration in line with the principle of reality, but that”s for megacities - is unlikely. However, the average income in certain depressed areas could be even higher: people often receive additional livelihood from small individual cases (the resale of goods, fruit and vegetables, providing services).

Secondly, the accumulation nashogo hypothetica1000l investor with investments in real estate or index PFTS - speculative. We calculated the monthly returns for each of these tools and added the interest earned to monthly savings. But in reality, put on 100 - 200 USD in real estate or the stock market is impossible. These markets are preferable to operate with sums of 100 thousand, and not hryvnia and the U.S.. But smaller investments are possible in the deposit market, in some cases - on the market share investment funds.

However, we took into account the first factor and further calculated the average accumulation of Ukrainian on the basis of possible real, and not the official salaries. Supposedly, in December of 2009, average salary was not 1955 UAH, as reported by Goskomstat, but twice - 4000 UAH (including payments in envelopes). But in this case, the five-year savings would be small: 94 UAH - deposits in dollars, 35 thousand UAH - gold, 24,2 thousand UAH - UAH deposits, 22 thousand UAH - mutual investment funds, 14 thousand UAH - Real Estate. read more…

an effort to acquire new and retain existing clients, legal entities, banks are any tricks - from bonuses to financial sanctions. Nevertheless, companies are ready to change one financial institution to another, if there will be more advantageous terms of service. The only way to keep customers certainly is the ability of the bank to give him a business loan.

Customers all want

Today banks are fighting harder than ever for each client, especially for legal entities. The fight is on two fronts - for the preservation of existing and attract new ones.

“Today is not a time when banks can not afford to dissipate our clients. The challenge now for many of the financial institutions - to keep the customer at any price” - confirms the head of the supervisory board of bank “National Credit Andrei Onistrat. Analyst company Prostobank Consulting Vladimir Payuk adds that the growth of its customer base is one of the priorities of each bank.

exceptions as clarifies Head of Corporate Business Bank

“Khreschatyk Alex Manzi, constitute only customers with a dubious reputation, suspected in money laundering. “Their reputation is reflected badly on the bank. On the other hand, care of” good customer “may be regarded as improper operation of the financial institution employees. It happens that companies are trying to understate the cost of the operation or service to a level below the cost of the product. It is clear that the bank is on the go can not. But in any case it is advantageous to negotiate and compromise, than to go to break relations “, - the expert believes.

Balancing on the brink of good business relations with customers and risk losing them, banks have increasingly used method of “carrot and stick”. To meet enterprises, they are willing to lower tariffs, increasing interest rates on balances in current accounts, apply an individual approach. “Recently a very popular among the banks are integrated” package “program for customer service to the same companies that are in need of additional funding may be eligible for a loan mainly in the facility, which served for a long time. And some lending companies are not their clients under the transfer of part or all rotations in their bank “- provides examples of V. Payuk.

On the other hand, packages are often imposed on customers regardless of their wishes.

“scheme” kreditueshsya - are served in our “is used by almost all banks”, - says A. Onistrat. His coll1000eague, A. Manzi confirmed - many banks in the loan agreements specify the conditions of the settlement and cash services exclusively in the bank, and require the client to refuse services other finuchrezheny.

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But companies now have to save every hryvnia, and pay more for services (particularly those with hidden fees), they do not want. Therefore, despite the fact that they prefer the stability of the financial relationship, if necessary, change your bank quite easily.

The observations of A. Manzi, at this time, many clients, legal entity opening additional accounts in multiple financial institutions to be able to respond quickly to changing situations in the financial sector. read more…

Portal Tripadvisor.com summarized the study, which identified the worst hotel in the world. List of the worst of the worst looks like this:

Europe

1. Grosvenor Hotel, Blackpool, United Kingdom

2. Villaggio Club Porto Ainu, Budon, Italy

3. Park Hotel, London, UK

4. Boston Court Hotel, London, UK

5. Cromwell Crown, London, UK

6. Dam Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

7. Corbigoe Hotel, London, UK

8. Earls Court Gardens Hotel, London, UK

9. Blair Victoria Tudor Inn Hotel, London, UK

10. Minster Hotel, York, UK

Asia

1. Phi Phi Don Chukit Resort, Ko Phi Phi Don, Thailand

2. Raj Residency, Chennai (Madras), India

March. Goldkist Beach Resort, Singapore

4. Mahkota Hotel Melaka, Melaka, Malaysia

5. Centaur Hotel, IGI Airport, New Delhi, India

6. read more…

Banks do not want to invest in the credit economy, says the head of the main service of socio-economic development of the Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine Roman Zhukovsky. In his view, the thesis that the resumption of lending by banks have no money, far from the truth. He stated this during the regular meeting of the Finance Press Club.

“The banks have a correspondent account by which the aggregate is 20 billion (including reserves), and this is a very good indicator. sounded the alarm when there was 12 billion. In the banking system, there is a very large amount of liquidity that can not explain the drop Only since early this year to 17 billion of loans in general. That is, lending falls, and the liquidity of the banking system grows. objectively Banks do not want to invest money “, - convinced the representative of the Secretariat of the President.

According to Zhukovsky, partly due to this attitude of banks issue credit default, especially since an increasing number of people who deliberately go out to them not to return in the form of impunity for such action. read more…

stock market of Russia completed the week of decline in the region 1400 points on the RTS index: Friday dominated sales against the negative dynamics of world oil platforms and because of fears that the crisis in the global economy is not over.

As a result of trades RTS and MICEX, fell back to levels of the third decade of December last year: the RTS index fell to 1411.14 points (-3.55%), the MICEX index - up 1355.64 points (-2.88%) , the main chips have fallen in price on the stock exchanges to 2-5,6%.

week the RTS index sank 4.3% and the MICEX index - by 4,5%.

Futures on RTS Index on Friday rose to the underlying asset by only 3.5 points, indicating that the neutral expectations of players.

On MICEX, cheaper stocks of Gazprom (RTS: GAZP) (-2,3%), VTB (RTS: VTBR) (-4,5%), “Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) (-2, 7% and -4.9% in the RTS), Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) (-2,2%), “Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) (-3,5% and -5,6% in the RTS ), Gazprom Neft (RTS: SIBN) (-3,9%), “Surgutneftegaz (RTS: SNGS) (-2,5%), Sberbank Russia (RTS: SBER) (-2%),” Tatneft “(RTS: TATN) (-2,7%),” Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) (-4,3%).

Grown paper Rostelecom (RTS: RTKM) (1,2%) on news that after the consolidation of the assets of Svyazinvest on the basis of “Rostelecom” will be located on the western markets 25% stake in the merged company in April 2011 .

fall on world platforms provoked weak labor market data from the U.S. for January, released on Thursday, as well as concerns about the increasing difficulties with the reduction of budget deficits Portugal, Spain and Greece.

additional negative on Friday became the data on industrial production in Germany, which in December fell by 2,6% in the growth forecast to 0.6%.

little alleviated the negative and provoked the closing of “short position” in the evening of Friday January data from the U.S. labor market, which turned out different polarities (the number of jobs fell by 20 thousand in the growth forecast o1000f 15 thousand, but the unemployment rate fell to 9.7% 10%).

European FTSE index fell on Friday on 1,2%, U.S. SP 500 Index to 18:45 Moscow time has grown by 0,1%.

oil fell against the strengthening dollar (euro fell 0,4% - to $ 1.3675), and concerns about the slow recovery in world demand for energy.

price of March futures contracts for petroleum of mark WTI for 18:45 Moscow time was $ 73.05 per barrel (-0,1%), before the price fell by 5% because an unexpected increase in the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States made investors had doubts about the end of the financial crisis.

As the head of analytical department IF Olma Vladimir Detinich, on Friday the market observed deepening downward correction under the influence of external factors. The flow statistics are not allowed traders to see “a ray of light in the darkness” - data on industrial production in Germany and the labor market in the U.S. were much worse than expected. Nevertheless, after the release of melon on employment in the U.S. for many blue chips there has been a rebound - statistics, was probably used as an excuse to close speculative short positions. These technical analysis does not exclude the possibility of deepening downward correction on the RTS index (the immediate goal may lie in the range of 1300-1350 points), he said.

According to the analyst VTB 24 (RTS: GUTB) Stanislav Kleshchev, quotations of futures for petroleum of mark Brent, despite record levels over recent months, the fall of quotations, remain above their 200-day average, which serves as a support. Accordingly, the chances of keeping oil prices above $ 70 are saved, which should provide support and the Russian stock market, analysts say.

According to the Head of the Department of trust management “Metropolitan Financial Corporation Kirill Alekseyev, investors in Russia scares and a sharp decline in world oil prices and the negative dynamics of equity markets. read more…

situation on the monetary market in January 2010 was characterized by a continuation of positive trends to an increase of population in the banking system. This occurred against a background of reducing the cost of borrowed funds, which allowed banks to reduce the cost and credit resources.

However, the dynamics of individual indicators of the monetary market (in particular, the volume of corporate deposits and loan portfolio) influenced the decision to start liquidation Ukrprombank, the volume of loans and deposits which have ceased to be considered in the overall performance of the banking system.

according to a report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

While that total deposits in January 2010 decreased by 0,9% (up to 324,7 billion UAH.), retail deposits increased by 0,3%. I grew up the v1000olume of investment of the population came from increased deposits in UAH (0,9%), while individuals” funds in foreign currency declined slightly (by 0,1%).

of legal entities in January decreased by 3,2%, in particular due to the influence of technical factors related to the liquidation of LLC Ukrprombank.

Also in January there was a decrease of cash outside banks to 2,5% - to 153.1 UAH billion. that is a traditional phenomenon for the first month of the year. Share of cash in the structure of money supply in January fell to 31.9% compared with 32,2% in December 2009.

Reducing the volume of deposits and cash outside banks accordingly affected the dynamics of money supply, the volume of which in January fell by 1,5% - to 480.2 UAH billion. And the amount of the monetary base decreased by 2,8% - to 189.4 UAH billion.

flow of funds from cash to cashless boosted liquidity in the banking system. To avoid the formation of monetary stability of the currency risk The National Bank of Ukraine has been actively carried out the operation to raise funds of banks, total volume in January amounted to 16,6 billion UAH., While the volume of refinancing operations of the banks - 1,4 billion UAH.

average interest rate on mobilization operations in January amounted to 7,9%, on refinancing operations - 13,1%.

operations NBU to regulate liquidity helped to ensure balance on the monetary market and avoid excessive growth of bank liquidity - the amount of banks” correspondent accounts in January increased by 0,6% - to 17,5 billion UAH. read more…

Feb. 4 at the next meeting of the ECB decided to keep the base interest rate at 1%. According to the ECB”s current interest rates are adequate to the situation in the economy. At the press conference, ECB President said that economic activity in the euro area continues to grow, although the uncertainty about the future growth of the European economy remains high. With regard to inflation, it still remains subdued. In particular, in January, inflation amounted to 1,0% in annual terms. Trust annual inflation rate remained at 2.0%. According to our estimates, the ECB on the instability growth and low inflationary pressures continue to testify about plans for the near term to keep interest rates at1000low levels, which is a positive factor for financial markets, the euro area. However, we expect the euro and European financial markets will continue to pressure big budget deficits in Greece and Spain and Portugal, although representatives of the ECB noted that the budget deficit is less than the euro area than in the U.S. and Japan.

5 February, Vice President of Marketing and Sales AvtoVAZ Maxim Nagaitsev said that the company plans to sell 100 thousand cars on the recycling program. In addition, the plan was disclosed sales for 2010, which amounts to 450 thousand cars. We evaluate a plan to sell 100 thousand cars on the recycling program, cars like the overly optimistic. The Government has allocated in 2010 10 billion rubles for the implementation of this program. Based on the amount of compensation of 50 thousand rubles for 1 car, the program is designed for 200 thousand cars. Thus, the AvtoVAZ wants to get 50% market share of cars sold on recycling programs. We believe that AvtoVAZ has a chance to take half of this market, as fixed at 50 per thousand sum of certificate is most pronounced when buying a car VAZ, in the lower price segment. However, we doubt the sale of 200 thousand cars on the recycling program in 2010. We estimate that consumer demand in 2010 will remain weak, growth of disposable incomes are low, and consumer lending will grow at a moderate pace that would put pressure on the demand for cars.

General Director of JSC “OGK-3 (RTS: OGKC) in his interview with Interfax made some important statements. First, in 2010 it expects to reduce operating profits by 7 times compared with the year 2009 - up to 600 million rubles. This amount does not include the possible revenue from the placement of free funds. According to him, coming in 2010 will be for OGK-3 the most severe, in particular because of low tariffs. However, through the implementation of programs to reduce costs will get the effect of the order of 1 billion rubles. Secondly, it became known that in 2009 operating profit of OGK-3 will be 4.2 billion rubles, the CEO noted that in 2009, failed to obtain substantial additional income from the placement of free funds, as it was in 2008. Nevertheless, management of OGK-3 plans to offer shareholders of net profits to send to dividends. Thirdly, it was confirmed the intention in the near future to sell the share of OGK-3 RUSIA Petroleum. We believe that the statements could have a positive impact on share prices OGK-3. Put across by the likely deterioration in financial performance of the company market speculations, as approved in 2010 the dynamics of electricity tariffs and the power behind the dynamics of fuel prices and inflation forecast. At the same time set goals to reduce costs, demonstrate the commitment of management OGK-3 to enhance the effectiveness of the company. Intention to send a portion of the net profit on dividends is somewhat unexpected. We estimate the potential dividend yield will likely not be interested in investors. However, this indicates an improvement of corporate governance, which is also confirmed plans to sell noncore assets.

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More information on these and other analysts” comments Finam You can read in the section “Investments”

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